The Bengals beat the Steelers three weeks ago and are now coming off a bye, while the Steelers offense played terribly last week… so why is this line -5.5? Perhaps the market respects the defensive adjustments Pittsburgh has made in recent weeks, and has no respect for the Bengals defense (rightfully so). Cincy cannot stop the run and struggle to cover opposing TEs, which are the main features of Pittsburgh’s offense. The Bengals dropped 42, 38, and 33 points in their last three games, yet their team total sits at 21.5 today. I expect Joe Flacco to be under pressure all game, which should bring their offense back to earth. More than 60% of the bets are on Cincy +5.5, but this line hasn’t budged.

We say assuredly the Steelers aren't passing any eye tests lately. Whether last Sunday vs. the Chargers or two weeks earlier vs. the Pack, Pittsburgh hasn't looked like an AFC North leader, while the QBR for Aaron Rodgers has been among the lowest in the league in recent weeks. Of course, friction in the Cincy camp as the defense, in galling fashion, has cost the Bengals back-to-back wins. The bye perhaps refreshed, the Bengals, and remember they beat the Steelers 33-31 on Thursday, October 16 behind Joe Flacco's 342 YP and 3 TD passes. Note...Cincy is very much back in the AFC north race with a win, and QB Joe Burrow is tentatively slated to return in two weeks. Play Bengals

The Bengals' backup running back, Samaje Perine, is out with a high ankle sprain. This means Chase Brown will go back to his high-volume role he had last season and last week. I like betting Brown's rush + receiving because it gives multiple outs with his volume and doesn't rely on game script. Brown exceeded this rush + receiving line in the last three games with Joe Flacco under center, including the first matchup with the Steelers in October. No matter the game script for the Bengals, I like Brown to soar past this combo line.

The Bengals have given up 12 touchdowns this season to tight ends. That's almost double the next teams, who have given up seven touchdowns to tight ends (Dolphins, Jaguars, Jets). In their first matchup this season, the Bengals gave up four touchdowns to the Steelers' tight ends. Two of those touchdowns that night were to Pat Freiermuth. Freiermuth has historically done well against the Bengals' defense. I don't know if Freiermuth gets two touchdowns again Sunday against the Bengals, but I certainly like this price for him to find the endzone again at least once on Sunday.

This is a rematch of a few weeks back when the Bengals won at home as 5.5-point underdogs. That's the same line despite the flip in home field, which should have me running to the Steelers. So what gives? I don't think their defense is very good, and I can't see them slowing down the Bengals' passing attack with Darius Slay and Alex Singleton ruled out, even if the weather isn't ideal with potentially impactful winds. I would expect those conditions to affect Aaron Rodgers more than Joe Flacco, and I like the latter's chance of getting a backdoor cover if needed in the fourth quarter considering how easy they went up and down the field in the first meeting.

Joe Burrow just came back to the building and his BFF Chase knows it's on him to help the Bengals win and keep their playoff hopes alive for when Burrow returns on Thanksgiving. The Steelers popped up with a good defensive game against the Colts, but that seems more like an aberration than reality after watching them get torched by Ladd McConkey last week for 100+ and a score. Chase has been on freaking FIRE his last five games, averaging 113.4 yards per game with three touchdowns and an absolutely absurd 72 targets in that stretch including his monster 23 (!) target game against Pittsburgh. Flacco and the Bengals have a fever and the only prescription is more Chase.

Jaylen Warren wasn't the problem in LA, as Pittsburgh mustered a season-low 221 yards. He averaged five yards per carry and caught both his targets for 21 yards. Look for the Steelers to use him more in a must-win game against Cincinnati. (He only played 24 snaps in the 25-10 loss to the Chargers). Warren erupted for 158 yards from scrimmage in the first meeting, and he could do similar damage Sunday against a Bengals' defense getting shredded by opposing backs.