Not going to call the Bears fraudulent, per se, as they have gone out and won games in the fourth quarter, which is tough to do in the NFL. What they have not done is defeat a team with any semblance of defense. The Vikings, meanwhile, have played four straight playoff teams; they’re a bit better than their record suggests. There are advantages with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams but not enough to cancel out the rest of the Minnesota side. The Vikings won this meeting by three in the opener. Now they’re home and in a desperation spot. What’s really changed?

I win either way. Either my Bears pull the upset or we obviously cash. Don't rule out a Bears win but not seeing it as they have been digging too many holes and needing superhero Caleb Williams in the final two minutes to rescue; why not run the two-minute offense the entire game if it works so well? I'm assuming Ben Johnson knows football better than I so will have to trust him. Quite sure I'm the smartest Bears Matt guy, but being ahead of the Nagys and the Eberflus' (Eberflii?) of the world isn't exactly a strong selling point. Let's not hire another Matt head coach shall we? Unless it's me. Hey, I led our college intramural team to a title as a player/coach.

This is a buy low spot on the Vikings at home. The Bears keep finding a way to win games and I don't want to gloss over that. although I feel their luck in close games has to run out soon. Ironically, the one close game they lost came in Week 1 to Minnesota. Look for J.J. McCarthy to get going and have one of his better days against a Chicago defense that has allowed an average of 296 passing yards in their last three games. Lay up to -3.

The Bears are the most fraudulent 6-3 team in the league. Chicago’s league-leading 13 interceptions have masked that their defense is actually not very good. It took dramatic comeback efforts to beat the Giants and Bengals. They have one point wins over the Raiders and Commanders, and their remaining two wins came over the lowly Saints, and a porous Cowboys defense at their absolute worst. Minnesota DC Brian Flores will keep Caleb Williams under pressure all game and force him to make mistakes. In 3 of their last 4 games, the Vikings were competitive against the Eagles, Lions and Ravens. This is where the Bears come back to earth.

We know that the Vikings' defensive coordinator Brian Flores isn't afraid to blitz a lot and put pressure on quarterbacks. In the Bears' first meeting against the Vikings, that happened, and Caleb Williams rushed for 58 yards. Williams has exceeded this rushing line in the last three games and five times this season. Look for him to use his legs again on Sunday against the Vikings' pass rush and exceed this line.

Going back to Week 1 of the regular season, the Bears were in complete control of this game until the 4th quarter. Fast forward to now and the Bears are surging in the right direction, while the Vikings are still sputtering on offense. Defensively they'll keep things close, but their inability to manufacture consistency with JJ McCarthy will ultimately be their undoing.

This is a tough matchup for Rome Odunze who thus far has functioned as the WR1. Odunze has been great against man coverage, however he’s struggled against zone coverage which the Vikings run at one of the highest rated in the NFL, they also double team at the highest rate in the league and will be intent on slowing down Odunze. The Bears suddenly have lots of pass catchers as well with their pass catching group as healthy as it’s been all season long.

The Bears ought to play the no-respect card, getting a field goal aganst an average foe despite their 6-1 SU streak. Since the bye in Week 5, their offense ranks among the most efficient. The ground game has proved especially kick-butt, which bodes well against the Vikes’ subpar rush defense. The greater concern for Minnesota is QB J.J. McCarthy, who has been throwing wildly in part because of a sore right hand that led to limited practice this week. His completion rate is near rock-bottom in the league.

Since returning two games ago from injury, Aaron Jones has been extremely productive as a runner and receiver. Last week vs. Baltimore, Jones recorded season highs in snap share, carry share and route participation. He should get 12-15 touches in this matchup. Look for a big game from Jones against a Bears team that gives up 5.4 yards per carry on the road.

This number went up but I still like it here. Aaron Jones has settled in as the Vikings' lead RB and should continue to be that this week. The return of center Ryan Kelly would help, but even without Kelly, Jones has averaged over 5.0 yards per rush in each of his past two games back from injury. When Chicago's played without linebacker T.J. Edwards they've allowed 5.8 yards per carry to RBs. With Edwards it's been 4.0 yards per rush. He's that important to Chicago's run defense. Nine RBs this season have had at least 57 rush yards on the Bears, Edwards there or not there. Only two offenses - Cincinnati and New Orleans -- failed to produce a 55-yard rusher.

It's tough to tie an over to anything correlating with JJ McCarthy, but if McCarthy can't throw on the Chicago Bears at home in a controlled environment, then he can't throw period. Enter Justin Jefferson who gets a great matchup and how is averaging double digit targets over his last 6 games. The yardage has been pedestrian for Jefferson, and that's mostly due to accuracy issues from his quarterback, but this matchup lends itself to more efficiency on just as many targets.

If the books continue to give us plus-money numbers on Justin Jefferson touchdowns, I'm going to continue to take those numbers, particularly at home against a Bears defense that isn't afraid to give up yards to top-end wideouts. Darius Slayton hit them for 89 last week despite getting a healthy dose of Russell Wilson. Chase and Tee Higgins lit them up for 230+ yards the week before. Chris Olave had 98 yards and two scores two weeks before that and Zay Flowers had a perfectly fine game in a Week 8 blowout. Jefferson has 32 (!) targets over the last three weeks. He's going to be peppered and I think he gets deep once on this porous Bears defense.

The Bears aren't as good as their record; they've faced the second-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. Now they visit a desperate Vikings team that is mostly healthy on defense (Jonathan Greenard's status is up in the air for Week 11). Chicago has given up 6.6 yards per play over its last three games and would have lost at home to the lowly Giants had Jaxson Dart not gotten hurt.

You may be able to wait and catch a 2.5, but I'll go ahead and take the 3 at nearly even money. The Vikings have lost 3 out of 4, but their schedule has been very tough. Their one win was at Detroit two weeks ago and I think we'll see that team against the Bears this Sunday. The Bears have won 6 of 7, but have barely escaped against some bad teams. Now they get a solid team on the road and I think it may go sideways for them.

The Bears are 6-1 in their last seven games, but several were by razor-thin margins, including needing two TDs in the final four minutes to beat the Giants at home. The Chicago defense is far from good, and that gives J.J. McCarthy a chance to finally get in rhythm after two surprisingly solid games against good defenses. The Vikings averaged 6 yards per play against Baltimore despite Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison only catching seven of 23 targets, and they should bounce back in this matchup. The Vikings defense played solid despite the final score last week, and I expect the pass rush to give Caleb Williams major issues. By ratings this line should be at least 3, but I'd lay up to 4.