The Browns are a tremendous defensive team at home where they have down all season. The Ravens are still not themselves despite winning three straight games by an average of 14.7 points (each victory by 8+ points). However, Baltimore has done a good job beating up on poor offenses, and that’s exactly what Cleveland brings into Sunday’s game. Lamar Jackson alone levels up the Ravens significantly, and we should not forget the 41-17 result in their first meeting with a better QB (Joe Flacco) leading the Browns. Buying a half point getting the Ravens at -7 (-120) is advised if possible.

FanDuel. Jerry Jeudy has remained under this long reception line in four of five games started by Dillon Gabriel this season. While he did reel in a 22-yard catch last week, it was only the second reception that’s traveled at least 15 air yards out of 20 Gabriel targets. The Ravens aren’t necessarily the best target for a receiver under, matchup-wise, but the weather is poised to play a significant factor in this one, with 25 MPH sustained winds expected. Gabriel’s arm strength is well below average, and I’m not expecting any downfield success. This is bettable down to under 17.5 yards for me.

I like the Ravens to take care of business very early against the Browns. So much so that we'll see them pull some starters in the second half. Baltimore's defense vs a rookie QB who is struggling to put points up on the board is reason enough to trust them with such a large point spread.

The production has been decent for Derrick Henry as of late, but I think this number is too high on the road in Cleveland. The Browns have faultered a bit lately against the run, but they are still a top rush defense from a YPC and yards before contact standpoint. Henry will get plenty of volume, but I think he has a lot of insignificant runs mixed in against the Browns.

FanDuel. Riding the Derrick Henry train again. King Henry has cleared this line in four straight games, as the Ravens are in must-win mode each week. I don’t trust the Browns offense under Dillon Gabriel to sustain drives against a Ravens defense that seems rejuvenated the last few weeks. High winds are also expected in Cleveland on Sunday, and I do expect the Ravens to lean on their workhorse.

The Browns have played three home games, giving up 11 points per game and 3.5 yards per play. They're facing a loaded Ravens offense, but with Lamar Jackson perhaps not at 100 percent. Jackson has rushed 14 times for only 50 yards in two games since returning from his hamstring injury. With rain and wind in the forecast, I'm expecting a low-scoring, tight Ravens win.

I always like backing the Browns as home underdogs, especially in division games with the better stop unit. Cleveland has a point differential of -15.3 in unfamiliar territory, while at home, they post a +9.0 point differential in the Dawg Pound. The Ravens crushed the Browns 41-17 as 12.5-point home chalk despite getting outgained 322-242 back in Week 2 with Joe Flacco under center. Cleveland achieved more first downs and ran 19 more plays than Baltimore. A minus two turnover differential was costly. Myles Garrett called out his team after last week's loss, and the Browns will be highly motivated in this division matchup. With 15-25 mph winds and a 50% chance of light rain, we have the makings of a closer-than-expected low-scoring contest.