This Panthers team has been a bit of a surprise so far this season, especially on offense. Rico Dowdle has run the ball extremely well, looking like a Pro Bowl-type back this season. They have the balance and a defense that's opportunistic. Look for the Saints offense to struggle once again with rookie QB Tyler Shough under center.

The Carolina Panthers have won four straight games with Bryce Young as quarterback. Last week was the big shocker winning as a double digit underdog on the road against Green Bay. Now they will face a Saints team that is 1-8 on the year, benched Spencer Rattler, and traded away Rasheed Shaheed. Still, look for Tyler Shough to play a bit better than his debut, and for the Panthers to have a back to reality game. Take the Saints.

Saints safety Justin Reid has cleared this prop total in three straight, including racking up 13 tackles last week against the Rams. The Panthers won’t hold the ball for 44 minutes like LA did, but they will run plenty with Rico Dowdle. I like Carolina to win the time of possession battle and for Reid to make at least six stops.

Rico Dowdle has taken over as the true RB1 for the Panthers, getting 27 touches last week for 130 rushing yards and two touchdowns. In the three games that Dowdle has operated as the Panthers' bellcow, he has rushed for 130, 183, and 206 yards. He now faces a Saints' defense that gives up the 6th most rushing yards to running backs this season. Look for Dowdle to exceed this line, and I don't mind betting 100+ rushing yards for plus money.

This price almost looks a steal with the Panthers! Carolina looks to be legitimately surging, winning the last four games Bryce Young has started at QB (the exception being Andy Dalton at QB vs. Buffalo). Last week's 16-15 thriller at Green Bay established Carolina as a peripheral playoff threat, and Dave Canales coming to his senses and naming Rico Dowdle his top RB was rewarded by Dowdle's 130 YR at Lambeau. Meanwhile, the Saints are losing by double digits almost every week as Kellen Moore is hoping Louisville rookie Tyler Shough can show a bit of progress at QB, but indicators are sketchy. They're already saying the "t word" (tank) in New Orleans, hoping for the first pick in the draft. Play Panthers

Carolina may never have conceded this many points throughout its modest history. In fact, the Panthers have been favored just twice in the past three seaons. Consider: They have won four of five outright by relying on a torrid rushing attack. The defense doled out 13 points last Sunday to Green Bay. Against five foes with losing records this year, they have never failed to cover. Also, the Saints not only have resorted to a rookie QB (Tyler Slough), who produced 10 points in his coming out as a starter, but they dealt away this week WR Rashid Shaheed, his primary target in the defeat. If the Panthers had another team name on their jerseys, the spread might be a full touchdown.

It doesn't look like we're going to get a better number on this play, so I'm jumping in now. The Tyler Shough offense didn't have a great game last week but this should be a better spot against a Panthers squad that's coming off an upset win and facing a team they're supposed to handle. I'm not sure Carolina scores enough to cover most of the time in this matchup, especially with Tetairoa McMillan now questionable to play. The Saints defense has put together quality performances this year against teams that aren't strong at receiver, so this feels like a 17-13 type of game for me where the line has inflated too much after Carolina's win last week.

Sometimes you have to pinch your nose and make a play and backing the Saints qualifies just about every week. But this number has gotten too big for Carolina, who was favored around three points on the lookahead. Tyler Shough is a concern, but we saw Kellen Moore bust out a bunch of junk offense against the Rams, including plenty of Taysom Hill. I think we get (much) more of that this week and the Panthers will be less equipped to stop it. With a super low total and a Panthers offense that loves to pound the ball, the Saints should be be able to hang around just enough to stay inside this inflated number.

The Saints have been worse on the road than at home, getting soundly beaten by whoever they're playing. They were at the Rams last week and lost 34-10. They've traded their most dangerous receiver, and they have a quarterback controversy with Tyler Shough taking over as the starting quarterback. The Saints have the No. 29-ranked offense, putting up 287 yards per game, and the defense of the Panthers is 13th-ranked, allowing 316 yards per game. The Panthers run attack at home has been strong, and overall they ranked 5th with 139 yards per game. Bryce Young has won and covered all three of his home starts; Andy Dalton started against Buffalo. The Panthers have won and covered four of their last five games.