Both teams are dealing with a bunch of injuries. New England is going to have to adjust without two of their top offensive weapons. The Buccaneers have dealt with their injuries over the past several weeks, and are coming off a bye week with plenty of time to prepare. Without their full running attack, the Tampa Bay defense should be able to spend more time covering Stefon Diggs and making Drake Maye uncomfortable. The Buccaneers are also 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when the line is in between a field goal.

Been waiting for a “fade the Patriots” spot, and we appear to have found it. This is not to say New England is incapable of winning outright – after all, it has six straight wins and five covers in that span – but the Buccaneers are a better offense than any team the Pats have faced this season. Tampa Bay may even be at a bit of a discount here coming off the Detroit loss and a bye week when it was out of sight, out of mind. The Bucs are still limited from a personnel perspective, but they have been playing that way all season. The Pats suddenly have a worrisome injury report, too, and that’s come on suddenly.

This line hasn't budged all week despite everyone seeming to be on the Bucs, which is a shame because I have been waiting to take Patriots +3. I have typically been lower on the Pats than the market during their six-game winning streak (which would've been eight if not for a fumble fest vs. Pittsburgh), but it's undeniable the defense is playing well. That should continue against a Bucs offense that is still without Bucky Irving, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and while Luke Goedeke returns to stabilize the right tackle position, the middle of the O-line is still a problem. With Drake Maye playing near an MVP level, I think the market has these team ratings switched, and I'd make this a pick 'em.

When I look at this matchup, I like how the Bucs were able to find a way to win two weeks ago vs New Orleans before heading into their bye. It was the defense that helped them win that game and not the late game heroics we were used to seeing. New England has been good all season long, but have been flying a little too close to the sun in many matchups vs good teams. This time, their luck runs out.

Otton is over this mark in 4 straight games, and has been an important target for Baker Mayfield with all of the injuries to Tampa’s WRs. Coming out of their bye week, the Bucs will still be without Chris Godwin & Bucky Irving, so expect them to continue running a heavy dose of 12 personnel. Otton has been on the field for virtually all of the offensive snaps with Tampa using two TE formations. Otton has a 20+ yard catch in each of the last 4 games, and I expect Mayfield to target him frequently over the middle of the field in this matchup.

DraftKings. Rachaad White is once again in line to start for the Buccaneers this week, in place of the injured Bucky Irving. White has cleared this receptions line in three of his last five games, and is poised to see a heavy dose of targets on Sunday. The Patriots allow the second most targets (7.11 per game), the most receptions (6.11) to opposing running backs, and the highest target rate (22%) to opposing running backs. The Pats are very tough against the run, and against wide receivers in the passing game. I have Baker Mayfield peppering White with 6 targets on Sunday - I’d bet this line up to -115.

This line is on the move and there are some 13.5 lines in the market now (which I would avoid). I think TreVeyon Henderson will have a tough time running the ball against a stout Bucs rush defense. His rush yard total is in the high 40s, and while I do think he can maybe get their on volume, I don't think that volume equates to 15 carries. The Patriots are likely to lean on their passing game and a little bit of Terrell Jennings along with Henderson. Henderson is an unproven product on the road and may get a trailing game script. It's enough for me to take the under on his rush attempts.

I don't see the Bucs running the ball effectively here for two reasons. One, the Patriots in their past five have held RBs to 3.0 yards per rush with no touchdowns and a stunningly low 1.4% explosive rush rate. Two, the Buca can't run the ball with their backs averaging 3.3 ypc in their past four. It'll mean Mayfield has to throw more, and I expect him to lean on everyone in the passing game. He usually saves his low-attempt games for blowout wins. Shop around on this -- I've seen over 34.5 at even money.

Tez Johnson has surpassed this yardage number in each of the last 4 games and has 15 targets over his last two games. The WR group for Tampa remains very banged up so you can expect Tez to remain on the field for almost all of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks. Add that the Patriots rush defense is stout and that Baker is slated to throw for between 240-250 yards and my expectation is that a lot of that goes the direction of Tez.

With Rhamondre Stevenson still missing practice as of Thursday, Henderson should be the "primary" guy in the backfield for the Patriots. In a game with a high total, we should see plenty of passing, especially because neither team gives up anything in the run game. Josh McDaniels loves passing to running backs as an extension of running and he had Drake Maye throw Henderson's way six times last week, with the explosive rookie pulling in four of them for 32 yards. I expect a lot more of that this week as well.