When Dobbins gets double digit carries, he scores in well over 50% of his games. As his prop is 14.5 carries this becomes nice value v a Raider team that is all done.

The Chargers had to wait until Saturday for an extra jolt of motivation. With Pittsburgh stumbling against Cincinnati, a victory over the Raiders would lock up the fifth seed and a desirable wild-card matchup versus the Texans, who scare nobody. All season long, the Chargers have taken care of lesser foes. They have won seven of their last 10 outright, with losses to Baltimore, Kansas City and Tampa Bay. The Raiders have perked up, winning their last two games. Still, Las Vegas can claim only one victory all year against a foe with a plus-.500 record. This spread expectedly jumped after the Bengals-Steelers outcome but remains reasonable for Chargers backers.

As Jim Harbaugh was basing personnel decisions here on the Steelers result on Saturday, it means Justin Herbert and the first-stringers are in the saddle as the Bolts can now secure the AFC's 5 seed (and get Houston instead of Baltimore in the wild card round). But the Raiders have shown some resiliency by winning their last two games and playing hard for Antonio Pierce and would love to play a semi-spoiler role against one of their hated AFC West rivals. Remember, Vegas scored 63 the last time the Bolts visited Allegiant Stadium last December (with no Herbert). The most startling pointspread nugget of all, however, is Raider QB Aidan O'Connell's 13-3 mark vs. the spread in games he has started! Play Raiders

Locked in the Chargers with the Bengals having the game in hand, which presents an opportunity for Los Angeles to earn the No. 5 seed with a win Sunday. The spread has since increased, understandably, and I remain comfortable with L.A. at -6.5 or better. There's also a tremendous teaser opportunity with your choice of late-game underdogs. Aidan O'Connell is a legit QB capable of actually moving the ball and scoring, but the Chargers defense and Justin Herbert should be gassed up for this opportunity. One of few games this week where result matters significantly for a team entering the playoffs.

The Chargers offense goes as he goes and with Gus Edwards out we don't have as much concern about vulture situations. Dobbins hit paydirt in Week 1 vs the Raiders. He has a TD in 4 of the last 6 games and 6 total TDs in that span. Raiders have allowed 40 offensive TDs, and down some key personnel here.

If the Steelers beat the Bengals on Saturday, the Chargers would be locked into the No. 6 seed and might rest some starters or pull them early. But even if the Chargers are playing to earn the No. 5 seed, I like the Raiders to be competitive. Their offensive line is playing its best ball of the season, Aidan O'Connell has looked competent, and Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers are legitimate weapons. Vegas' defense has given up 4.9 yards per play over the past three games. The Raiders finished 3-1 under Antonio Pierce last season -- the loss coming by a field goal -- and enter this game on a two-game win streak.

There's a chance this line looks very different come Sunday morning, and that's because the Chargers' motivation hinges on what happens in Bengals-Steelers. If Pittsburgh wins, which I believe will happen, the Chargers will be locked into the 6 seed and can rest players or pull key starters early. The Raiders have played themselves out of the running for the No. 1 pick with two straight wins, indicating they're giving their all to close the season on a high note for Antonio Pierce. Be sure to make a play on a Steelers-Raiders money line parlay as well due to the correlation.

The Ravens will stomp the Browns, in which case Mike Tomlin will rest almost everyone he can vs the Bengals and Bengals likely win. So Chargers have a chance to avoid the Ravens and most to 5 seed Sun. LAC is 11-4-1 ATS and 4-0-1 ATS within AFCW and covered this easy in 1st game vs LV despite a terrible offensive performance. Jim Harbaugh seems intent on playing his starters through, JK Dobbins coming back is huge and the defense has settled down after struggling vs top offenses. Justin Herbert is 6-1 ATS last 7 as a road favorite and 11-4 in last 15. Harbaugh is 18-7 ATS as a road favorite. They'll be ready. Six of LV 8 losses to winning teams by 7+