DeMeco Ryans claims the Texans will play their starters against the Titans despite having their playoff spot locked up. I’m willing to believe him … to a point. Houston has lost three straight falling 31-2 last week as the offense fell off a cliff without Tank Dell. As we saw with the Steelers, the Texans need a get-right game going into the playoffs. This is a perfect spot against the Titans, which registered their only win since Nov. 3 over Houston. The Texans should be motivated to start, and they know a playoff run is unlikely given their limitations. Slim pickings this week, so let's take a risk that Ryans plays his starters more than a quarter. If that’s the case, this should pay.

The Texans offense is reeling and needs to get right before the playoffs. Despite being locked into their seed, I like them to play their starters for part of this game and win it against the lowly Titans. Tennessee has tripped over their own feet at every step of the season, and at this point I can imagine the front office would prefer a Week 18 loss to improve draft position. The Texans mustered up just 2 points against the Ravens on Christmas, and are in serious need of a “vibe check.” Even if Houston plays its 2nd-stringers for most of this game, I’d still be comfortable betting on Davis Mills to beat the Titans. Tennessee shouldn’t be favored.

Week 18 is full of contract incentives and statistical milestones. Calvin Ridley needs 59 more receiving yards to hit the 1,000 receiving yards milestone. His prop line is three yards above that, but I like him for 70+ receiving yards in this matchup vs. the Texans. The Texans give up big plays to receivers. Ridley had 93 receiving yards on five catches in the first matchup against the Texans this season. Extra incentive and a good matchup make me confident that Ridley will soar past this number again.

DeMeco Ryans said this week that "everybody will be out there playing" in this game despite being locked into the 4 seed, but because there's uncertainty they'll play the whole game, the spread is far below where it should be. We can take advantage of that by taking the Texans in the first half and expect them to build an early lead against a Tennessee team more interested in evaluating players than winning, as they plan to play both QBs here. Houston needs to get back on track before the playoffs start, and one good half of football should make Ryans feel better about his team moving forward.