I like being on the right half of 16.5. The Patriots will try, especially on offense. I like them to get to 17 on a mild day in Foxboro

Blink and you might miss Josh Allen on Sunday, as his appearance is likely limited to one series to keep his consecutive starts streak alive before Sean McDermott hustles him out of the lineup before we are treated to a Mitch Trubisky-Drake Maye QB showdown in the Gillette Stadium chill, where the temperature will be below freezing. New England's defense has generally made a good accounting of itself for Jerod Mayo, with most of the issues on the offensive end as Maye finishes his rookie season. (Joe Milton might also see action at QB for the Patriots.) The dropoff from Allen to Trubisky, however, is significant, and this rock fight is perhaps played in the teens (temp and score). Play Bills-Patriots Under

I’m a little late to the party here, as -2.5’s are gone and this will likely close with the Bills laying a FG or more. Despite having already locked up the #2 seed in the AFC and resting their starters, I still like the Bills win their final game with Mitch Trubisky under center. Trubisky is a solid backup with the skill set to run this Buffalo offense. The Patriots are 3-13 and have the lowest strength of schedule rating, meaning a loss would guarantee the #1 pick in next year’s draft. While no coach would ever admit to losing on purpose, tanking this Week 18 game would be ideal for the franchise.

The Bills get the opportunity to rest players ahead of the wild-card round, taking a line that would be north of Bills -10 under a field goal. While other such rest spots have larger adjustments, I still like the Bills here. Some starters will play -- roster sizes just aren't the same as in the preseason -- and Mitchell Trubisky is a quality backup capable of running the offense. The Pats could play any of three QBs, but their motivation should be to maintain the No. 1 pick. Buffalo's motivation is to win despite resting some starters as it would lock in a franchise-best 14-win season. If you can lay less than a FG, I like the Bills.