The Panthers are now catching a full 10 points, which I think is excessive. Carolina took Tampa Bay to overtime in Week 13, narrowly losing a 26-23 game that they could have won. This Bucs defense has been brutal as of late, and will remain without their best DB Antoine Winfield. On offense, Tampa will not have WR Sterling Shepherd, nor TE Cade Otton. The Panthers are 6-1 ATS since Bryce Young became the starter again (including covers against the Eagles & Chiefs). This is a divisional matchup with Carolina looking to play spoiler. 10 is too many points. Play Carolina.

In its 6-1 spread run across the past seven games, Carolina has either won (three times) or lost by one score in six of the games. Bryce Young has passed for a TD in each of those starts, and ran for a TD in three other games. The Panthers had the Bucs on the slab December 1 at Charlotte only to see Baker Mayfield lead a madcap dash to send the game into OT on Chase McLaughlin's 51-yard FG at the end of regulation, before a fumble in Tampa Bay territory opened the door for the Bucs to win on another McLaughlin kick. The Bucs need to win to keep pressure on the Falcons in the NFC South, but it won't be easy. Play Panthers

FanDuel. I’m going to look back at this NFL regular season and regret not betting on running backs against the Panthers defense. Carolina has been porous against the run, ranking last in the NFL in running back rush yards per game (141) and yards per carry (5.1). An opposing running back has 100+ yards in five of the last six Panthers’ games. Bucky Irving was part of that run with 152 against the Panthers in Week 13. As the leader of the pack for yards after contact (3.0), he should absolutely thrive in this matchup once again. I’d play this line up to over 89.5 yards.

We know Mike Evans is chasing the 1,000 receiving yards milestone to achieve his 11th 1,000-yard season in a row. Evans also has a great matchup against the Panther's defense that does not pressure the quarterback and is a funnel to perimeter wide receivers. When these two teams faced each other a month ago, Evans had 118 receiving yards. I like Evans to soar past his receiving line on Sunday.

Carolina enters as the hotter (in ATS terms) and healthier team. The Panthers are on a 6-1 roll for covers, along with six wins in a row as underdogs. Tampa Bay is ultra-thin at WR, with Sterling Shepard out, and safety, with All-Pro Antonio Wingfield Jr. a scratch. Both positions already were shorn of standouts. Earlier this month, the Bucs needed a last-second field goal to extend the game into overtime, when they beat Carolina. The Panthers unmistakably have improved since then.

This is the best possible matchup for Bucky Irving. The Panthers allow an NFL-high 5.1 yards per carry, and have been even worse the past three games (6.3 ypc allowed). In last week's narrow loss to Dallas, Irving got 16 carries while Rachaad White got just three. Look for the Bucs to lean on Irving yet again as that is the best way to attack the Panthers.

For my weekly kicker prop, I'll roll with Chase McLaughlin, who made four successful three-pointers against the Panthers in Week 13. Carolina has given up 3+ made field goals in four of their last five contests. In a must-win game for the Bucs, expect McLaughlin to have plenty of action once again.

Things get crazy in the NFC South. All 4 TB division games totaled at least 49 points and avg 62.5. Four of CAR 5 division games hit 49 or more and avg 55. They produced 49 in their first meeting. Baker Mayfield struggles vs CAR D but TB ran all over them this year and Bucs will be desperate. TB D has serious issues. TB 9-3 to over in last 12 games and CAR 6-2 over last 8. Last 5 meetings between them have gone over and 7 of 10.