I wouldn't care if it was the Little Giants hosting the 1985 Bears, I'm taking +17 on an NFL team at home. This isn't the Champions League where the Ravens need to boost their goal differential or something. Just get a W and get home.

Giants rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been targeted 17 times in the past three games, including 10 last week. He cleared this receiving yards prop in all three games. Now he faces a Ravens defense that shuts down the run (NFL-low 3.5 ypc allowed) but allows the fourth-most targets to opposing RBs. With Tracy dominating the Giants' backfield lately, I bet him Over on receiving yards in what should be a trailing game script.

Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are facing the worst run defense they have seen all season. After stewing for two weeks on their home loss to the Eagles, the Ravens should come out on fire against a heavily depleted Giants' roster. A terrific first-half covering team, Baltimore is relatively healthy and should dominate from the outset.

DraftKings. Micah McFadden took the reins for the injured Bobby Okereke last week and racked up 11 combined tackles while playing 100% of the Giants’ defensive snaps. This week, he gets Ravens (again, without Okereke), who I expect to absolutely dominate time of possession against an awful Giants’ offense. Nine of the Ravens’ 13 opponents had an off-ball linebacker clear this line.

FanDuel. After rookie Theo Johnson went down with a season-ending injury, Daniel Bellinger re-emerged as the Giants primary pass-catching tight-end - a role he had one season ago. Last week, Bellinger was on the field for 51 of 56 quarterback drop-backs, snagging five of seven targets for 45 yards. The Giants are going back to Tommy DeVito, but Bellinger does have familiarity with him from last season. The Ravens will almost undoubtedly put the Giants in a pass-heavy gamescript, and they’ve allowed the fifth most receiving yards to opposing tight-ends, at 63.5 yards per game.

Opponents are running the ball against New York at the fourth-highest rate (47.84 percent). That meshes beautifully with what the Ravens love to do. This game projects as a blowout, and I don't see Lamar Jackson airing it out 27 times. The Ravens have a showdown with Pittsburgh coming up Saturday, Dec. 21. They'll keep the ball on the ground, keep the clock moving, and start preparing for the Steelers.

When the Giants announced that QB Tommy DeVito would start instead Drew Lock, the spread bounced so high that it became the fourth largest for a home underdog this century. Really? DeVito has played better than his more seasoned teammate. Also, the Giants' defense ranks midpack for points allowed, which is impressive given how little the offense graces the field. Double-digit underdogs stumbled early this season but have righted themselves with five consecutive covers, mostly by wide margins. Frankly, this spot is insane. Of the Giants' 11 losses, eight have occurred by differences well below this crazy-high total.

I expect him to get a heavy load here. They should roll by 20+ points and that means Hill gets a lot of run. I expect him to go over this with rushing yards alone. For starters, Hill is over this in 4 of his last 7 games. And when you look at games where the Ravens led by 3 scores, Hill gets a ton of work: 54, 96, 48 and 58 scrimmage yards.

This should be a blowout and Derrick Henry will get plenty of time on the bench in that instance. And they wont want Lamar running wild, either. Maybe Keaton Mitchell cuts into some of the role, but I see Hill with a bunch of carries in the second half. This is a low number for him to begin with. I expect a carry of 10+ yards against this sad defense. He's over this in 3 of the last 5 games. Giants give up a ton of explosive runs. Hell I could see Hill getting 10 carries in this game.

The Giants run game is terrible and they are especially bad against the kind of runs out of heavy personnel (12, 13, 21 and 22) that the Ravens favor against lighter fronts. NYG are 28th in rush EPA out of that stuff and 25th in success rate. This could be a total blowout with Henry on the bench in the second half, but I expect an explosive run or two before he's done. Henry has a rush of 27 yards or more in 9 games already this season. Giants have allowed a rush of 20+ in 8 of the last 9 games. Coming off a very late bye, expect Henry to be running hard. December is his time of year.