The oft-injured RB has been a good story this year as he bounced back from another serious injury to emerge as RB1 for the Chargers. But he's facing a rejuvenated Browns club with a strong run defense that will make stopping the run a priority and forcing the Chargers into more passing than they would prefer.

It was obvious to anyone with eyes that Jameis Winston would be an improvement over Deshaun Watson; he ultimately proved that with an upset over the Ravens in which he took advantage of an extremely thin secondary. Los Angeles boasts one of the NFL’s best defenses, and perhaps more importantly, an offense that protects the ball. Combining that with Winston’s propensity for turnovers, the Chargers should have the possession advantage as they look to control the clock and the game. They also have advantages at coach with Jim Harbaugh and QB with Justin Herbert. Plus, while their receiving corps lack in star power, it will finally be complete this week. It’s a tough road spot given Cleveland plays well at home, but I like L.A.

Los Angeles is 6-1 to the under on the season. Charges games have not gone over 40 points yet thus far. Cleveland is 7-3-1 to the under at home when the total is less than 43 points. They got their first win of the season at home last week behind Jameis Winston, throwing for over 330 yards. However, on the road, the Chargers are allowing 163 passing yards and holding their opponents to 14 points per game.

We won last Sunday being optimistic on Jameis Winston and cashed for an INT ... but frankly got lucky as he had two passes that should have been picked dropped by the defense. The Chargers have one of the better pass defenses in the NFL.

In Jameis Winston's first start, Elijah Moore led Cleveland with 12 targets and a 29 percent first-read target share. His 10 first-read targets ranked fifth among all wideouts in Week 8. Moore should make at least four catches Sunday against the Chargers, who give up a ton of completions underneath.

Nick Chubb saw his carries increase from 11 to 16 in his second game back from injury. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw more carries here. And each week I believe the efficiency will improve too. We don't need the full Nick Chubb experience to exceed this attainable line.

The Browns got a needed infusion of offensive production and enthusiasm from quirky veteran QB Jameis Winston in their upset of the Ravens. Look for them to make it two straight against a Los Angeles team whose four wins have come against modest competition.

After an impressive start to the season JK Dobbins has cooled significantly from an efficiency standpoint. Dobbins will face an elite Browns defensive line that is elite. Cleveland is ranked 13th in EPA allowed per rush, however they are 1st in Run Stop Win Rate, indicating they’re a bit better than the stats suggest. Dobbins does not look like the same back from early in the season.

Let's slow down on the Jameis Winston hype. Yes, the new-old Browns QB delivered a win in his debut for them last Sunday. At the same time, he threw three horrid passes that might have resulted him being lifted in other circumstances and has a track record for inconsistency. Even if he can pull off a repeat and continue to jump-start the Browns' offense, the Chargers can counter with points of their own. Their offense has put a slow season start in the past with three straight impressive outings. L.A. is 4-1 ATS as a favorite, along with 3-0 versus opponents who were sub-.500.

Cleveland has only allowed one opposing ballcarrier to top 70 yards rushing, and that was last week against the NFL's rushing leader, Derrick Henry (73). Dobbins has been held to less than 60 yards rushing in 4 of his last 5 games. This line feels 10+ yards too high for me so I like the value we're getting here.

Cedric Tillman appears to have become WR1 with the Browns now that Amari Cooper is in Buffalo as Tillman has been targeted 21 times in the past two games with 15 catches -- at least seven in each. He was a very popular Fantasy pickup this week.

No one loves to throw the jumpball more than this guy and don't be fooled by the stat line in his first start in two years. He is the same guy, it's just that the Ravens dropped 4 easy INTs. Won't happen again and we know Jameis will throw picks and keep throwing them. You can't lead the NFL in TDs and INT if you let the mistakes bring you down. Browns will air it out with season on life support. And he will be under way more pressure against a much better pass rush, which means more 50/50 balls downfield. This should be -200.

Njoku became a downfield threat last year and Deshaun Watson got hurt and Joe Flacco took over, and it's happening again, and even if Derwin James is on him, he is allowing a ton of receptions this season. Njoku got 2 play action targets in the first 3 games, and has 10 in 2 games with Jameis Winson. He ran 3 go routes in the first 3 games and 8 the last 2 weeks. He ran 21 out routes through 3 games and ran 30 the last 2 weeks with new QB/play caller. He went over this in Winston's first start, averaging 8.7 yards/target, his highest in two years. Winston will find him down the sidelines and in the seam for chunk yards.

Tillman clearly got a connection going with Jameis Winston on the scout team and working with backups all offseason, because James can't stop throwing to him since he finally took over at QB. Dude has 21 targets the last two games, catching 15 of them. Jameis is fearless and will pump it in to the big receiver at any time. Doesn't matter is he is smothered. This is his go-to guy and I don't think it stops now.

There’s an old saying: health is wealth. Well, the Cleveland Browns are not healthy. In fact, they are now suffering from a real cluster of injuries. As a result, we are going to increase our wealth by fading Clev and J Winston who is a turnover ATM.

The Browns looked like an entire different offense with Jameis Winston at QB, but he took advantage of a beat-up Ravens secondary in Cleveland's upset win, and this is a good spot to fade the Browns against an elite defense that has allowed 13 points per game all year. The Browns defense could be down two key players in Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Denzel Ward due to injuries from Sunday, while the Chargers have been getting healthier and opening up the offense more for Justin Herbert. Even if we're confident in Cleveland's offense, this could easily be a 20-17 type of game closer to the lookahead number of Chargers -3.5 than the current line.

The Browns' offense woke up with Jameis Winston at quarterback, but their defense took two major hits. Leading tackler Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was hospitalized with a neck injury while top corner Denzel Ward suffered his second concussion this season. Those would be huge absences as Cleveland tries to slow down the Chargers' resurgent passing attack. Justin Herbert has averaged nearly 9 yards per attempt the past two games, with rookie Ladd McConkey erupting and soon to be joined by wideouts returning from injury. Lay the small number.

I think Jameis Winston is a starting QB in the NFL and he's showing you why. The arm strength and confidence to touch every level of the field was on display against the Ravens. Defensively, they'll stop the run and make things tough on Justin Herbert.

Chargers have not played a game to hit 40 points all season. I don't see it starting here. They are 6-1 to the under and Jim Harbaugh is 26-11 to the under in his last 37 NFL games. Chargers bleed clock more than any team. Both teams OK with settling for FGs. LAC 4 road games avg 32.5 points. Browns home games are 8-4 to over since '23. Don't get carried away by what Famous Jameis did to Ravens inept D. Chargers have far superior pass rush and play much better zone D and will take away easy big plays and also turn Winston over (BAL dropped 3 easy INT). Jim and John Harbaugh can compare notes here. LAC D is better than its O.