The Jaguars aren't going winless. Right? Right? Top pass-rusher Josh Hines-Allen and RB Travis Etienne are both good to go after they were on the injury report. No Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor or Ryan Kelly for Indy on offense and a few defensive guys are also out. The Colts never win in Jacksonville for whatever reason. A lot of former Jaguars stars will be on hand with Tom Coughlin being inducted into the Jaguars Ring of Honor Today.

We like the Jags to win here, but the ML has moved a bit steep and we wouldn't recommend laying 3.5 on a winless Jags team. However, in a battle of clubs that rank in the bottom third of total defense, look for the Jags and Colts to race past this total.

We're admittedly taking a risk when backing the Jags, still winless and kidding since late last season when they dropped five of their last six to miss the playoffs. That's 1-9 across their last ten games...not good. Yet Jacksonville has only played poorly in the Monday night loss at Buffalo; it had clear shots to win in its other three games, such as last Sunday when the Jags led the Texans until the final 18 seconds in their latest bitter loss. Still, Trevor Lawrence has only tossed 1 pick across four games, and the Colts won't likely have Anthony Richardson in lineup at QB. That means Joe Flacco Time, which if nothing else presents a more stationary target for the Jacksonville defense. Play Jags

Sunday offers a buy low spot on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Who had opportunities in last week’s loss to Houston, and afterwards Doug Peterson took some heat. Often times we see a veteran backup quarterback come in and succeed. Joe Flacco did so filling in for Anthony Richardson in last week’s win over Pittsburgh, but getting a start is entirely different. Take Jacksonville as they get their first win of the season and cover at home.

Seconds from securing their first victory last Sunday, the Jaguars should close the deal here. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, the league's No. 5 most productive rusher, is out. QB Anthony Richardson is questionable. For Jax, premier TE Evan Engram, the team's foremost receiver a year ago, is due back after an injury layoff. Indy has not won outright in north Florida since forever -- specifically, nine games ago. The Colts appear an ideal slump-buster for QB Trevor Lawrence, who has dropped nine starts in a row but is 4-1 versus Indy.

Thomas has been the Jaguars' best downfield receiver, seeing nine targets in each of the past two weeks proves it. And his coach has even backed it up saying "we're going to continue to keep throwing the ball this way." The Colts pass defense has been abysmal. Overall they've let up a third-most 70% completion rate to wide receivers and 12.8 yards per catch. But on throws of 10+ Air Yards they've given up 26.7 yards per catch, the fourth-highest number of any team in the league. Thomas' average depth of target in his past two games is 11.3 yards, and 12.46 yards on the season. The combo-yard prop is higher than his receiving yardage prop, but with less juice.

Trevor Lawrence has struggled this season, arguably playing the worst football since entering the league. Lawrence has a get right matchup this week against a Colts defense that struggles in coverage, is missing multiple key defenders, and has been unable to generate consistent pressure. Indy ranks 24th in EPA allowed per dropback. There is also a good chance Lawrence will have his Pro Bowl TE Evan Engram back for this game as well.

Locking this in at -2.5 (-120). Injuries continue to mount for the Colts, who just placed their third starting defensive lineman (Tyquan Lewis) on IR. That's on top of injuries to Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor. It's unclear if either will play Sunday. The Jaguars could get tight end Evan Engram back, which would immediately benefit Trevor Lawrence.

The Jags have nothing going for them whatsoever on offense and there is little reason to believe that changes here against a Colts defense that has bowed up the last few weeks. The Colts have scored 14 points or less in four of their last eight road games and they average just 18 points in that span. Joe Flacco gives me a little pause on the over side of things, but three of Jags four games are 44 or under. Jags are 12-6 to the under at home since the start of 2022, averaging 41 points. Colts are 10-8 to the under on road in that span, averaging 42 points. The last 8 games between these two in Jacksonville the game has averaged 40.75 points.

The Jaguars are now 0-4, but they played a great game on the road against The Texans, only to lose in the final seconds. They get a Colts team that has injury issues at RB and QB and big questions on defense and that should be enough for a desperate Jags team to get the win and the cover. I wasn't high on the Jags this season at all, but their next three games are on the easier side and they're not going to call it quits just yet.