This is normally a spot where I'd back the desperate Bengals against a team coming off a cathartic win. Maybe that will prove to be the right play, but Cincinnati’s defense is struggling and unable to stop the run, probably still with some players back healthy. The Bengals took advantage of the heavily overmatched Panthers but won’t have the same success here. The Ravens are doing incredible work with the Cerberus-like rushing attack of Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and Justus Hill. Baltimore has largely held Joe Burrow down, and Cincinnati’s lacking run game is keeping it one-dimensional. Sitting under a field goal is enough value to lean against sharp money on the Bengals, which are on a 1-7 ATS streak against AFC North rivals.

The Bengals are going to have to throw to move the ball against Baltimore's top-rated run defense. Considering Burrow's history of success against the Ravens, we like him to clip this passing yards total.

This is simple. In our book, barring extenuating circumstances, Baltimore is a take if it is laying less than a field goal. Cincy finally got a win last week after an 0-3 start, but maybe it deserves an asterisk given the opponent (Carolina). The Bengals were an attractive play because they were in desperation mode. Not here. The Ravens have (finally) integrated new RB Derrick Henry into the offense. Their lone glaring weakness is defending against the long (or midrange) ball, so keeping Joe Burrow throwing short should be a priority.

The over is a sucker bet -- it's meant to look like a gimme since Moss has had over 50 rush yards in each of his past two games. But those games were against the Commanders and Panthers, two easy run defenses. The Ravens? They're allowing just 2.7 yards per rush to RBs this year and held James Cook to under 40 yards. In fact the only guy to get over 40 yards was Isiah Pacheco in Week 1, and he needed 15 carries to do it. The biggest factor of all is that Moss started losing carries to Chase Brown last week, and Brown did better with his rushes than Moss did. That's something I expect to keep seeing moving forward.

While I am very bullish on Chase Brown and believe it is only a matter of time until he is the feature back for the Bengals, this is a brutal matchup. Brown who is averaging 6.3 YPC and is ranked 1st in Success Rate has been wildly efficient, however he has taken advantage of some soft matchups. That will not be the case Sunday when he faces a Ravens rush defense that has surrendered the fewest yards to opposing RBs allowing only 170 through 4 games (42.5 YPG) and are 4th in defensive rushing EPA. Brown is still splitting work with Zack Moss and has only had double digit carries once.

After a slow start to the season, Ja'Marr Chase has piled up 203 yards, 3 TDs, 9 receptions, on only 13 targets over the last two weeks. Somehow Chase has yet to see more than 7 targets in a game this year, however I expect that to change this week versus Baltimore. The Ravens pass defense thats allowing explosive passing plays at the highest rate in the NFL. If Joe Burrow has time, he will be finding Chase downfield.

Now that we've seen the run game for the Ravens really breakout last week vs Buffalo, expect them to lean more into that against this divisional opponent. Cincy has to be able to find their own balance offensively, which will be a struggle vs the Ravens defense and how they can attack.

Lamar has run wild on the Bengals throughout his career and the Cincy DL is low on gap stuffers. They have real issues vs the run. Ravens average 5.9/carry with LJ on the field vs CIN since 2019. Jackson is over this 8 times vs the Bengals in his career and 5 in a row. He averages 6.8/carry vs them since 2019. Probably only needs a half dozen or so carries to get home.

It's not that long ago that Andrews was the No 1 go-to guy for Lamar Jackson. And while the Ravens aren't throwing the ball that much, and Andrews's targets are way down, he dropped an easy 15 yard gain last week and BAL leaning more into throwing out of heavy personnel now that the run game is humming. This guy can still catch and run, and I think he and Isaiah Likely are both going to go off in the same game soon. I see a few intermediate seam shots for Andrews vs a D that is going to have to sellout to stop the run game. Andrews suffered nasty hop drop injury vs Cin last year after getting forced ball on early drive.

This is over in 5 of the last 7 games, and we came a BS penalty away from it hitting in another one. Lamar Jackson is leaning into the horizontal pass game and Hill wins on screens. Ravens RBs caught all nine targets in the last game. He went over this in Cincy last year. His role keeps expanding even with Derrick Henry running wild.

Totals above 50 are 4-0 to the Under this season. Take it back to last season, and totals sitting above 50 are 16-4 to the Under! The public loves their Overs, but historically in the NFL they often do not hit at a profitable clip over the course of a season. While I do expect these offenses to both succeed in this matchup, the total has ballooned too high from the opening line of 46.5. Sometimes you play the matchup, sometimes you play the number.

The Ravens have earned the top spot in my power ratings with an impressive win against the Bills, a team they match up with very well. And yet I'd still make this line the lookahead number of Ravens -1 with a Bengals offense that's getting better as the receivers get healthier. Cincy did everything it needed to do in Carolina last week, and the only time they lost by more than 3 against Baltimore in the last three years was when Joe Burrow couldn't continue down 10-7 in the last meeting. Baltimore has been vulnerable in the second half of most games this year, and I like Cincy to keep it close even with their defensive issues.

Styles make fights, and the Bengals are way short on DTs and cannot stop the run – as Panthers just showed, again. Ravens three-headed rushing attack will be a problem here (avg 5/carry vs CIN in '23). Lamar Jackson has a long history of explosive runs vs this defense. Ex-BAL DC Mike Macdonald left behind blueprint to stop Joe Burrow (1-3 vs BAL the last two years averaging just 5.9 yards/attempt with an 85.3 rating). Ravens 4-2 ATS in last 6 at Cincy and 7-3 ATS on road last 10, with 3rd best cover margin). Cincy just 5-5-1 at home ATS in that span. Jackson is 5-2 ATS in his last 7 at Cincy, near where he played his college ball. Showtime!