On the surface this might look a more-tricky-than-usual "over" as the Raiders are likely without Davante Adams, robbing QB Gardner Minshew (feeling some heat) of his favorite target. Other injuries, however, might help the respective offenses; edge rush demon Maxx Crosby is also out for Vegas, while the Brownies might be without their pass rush force, Myles Garrett, who at best will be playing at something less than 100% because of foot injuries. Deshaun Watson might be running out of time to spark this Cleveland offense, but at least won't have to deal with Crosby bearing down from the edge. After the Panthers burned the Raiders for 36 points, LV has blazed thru its "totals" like a blowtorch the past two weeks. Play Browns-Raiders "Over"

The absence of Raiders WR Davante Adams caused the rush in this line movement but it was likely headed this way regardless. Raiders coach Antonio Pierce's now infamous "business decisions" comments following last week's loss to the Panthers might have had the opposite impact he was hoping for, and this is a bad spot for a short-handed club (DL Maxx Crosby also is out) against a Browns team looking to get its own season back on track.

Njoku is expected to sit again and in his absence Akins had 7 targets. Cleveland will use the TE so I’m projecting 2.7 rec for 29 yards

The Browns flipped from underdogs to favorites based on the Raiders' Friday injury report. Now that the line has settled, I still like Cleveland at this short money-line price to eke out a win in Vegas. Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams are the biggest absences, but don't underestimate the loss of right tackle Thayer Munford. The Raiders will be forced to start third-round rookie D.J. Glaze against a still-imposing Browns' defensive front. Look for Deshaun Watson, who was pressured relentlessly by the Giants, to play better Sunday as his O-line enters with a little more stability.

Brock Bowers is tied with Trey McBride in TE target share (20%) through week three. He has averaged 64.3 receiving yards while going over this prop in all three games. Bowers is a significant part of the offensive game script. My model has 68.5 receiving yards for the emerging stud.

The Browns are getting drilled by the media but they actually pitched a shutout in the second half last week. Take the better team as Vegas is a mess