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Cleveland again is without starting offensive tackles Jedrick Wills Jr. and Jack Conklin as well as No. 1 TE David Njoku. All that missing obviously doesn't bode well for Deshaun Watson to look much better this week than he did in Week 2, although Jacksonville's defense isn't as good as the Cowboys' is. The Browns also could wear down late as it's still very hot and humid down here in Fla. May as well take a potential push at -3 out of play as I expect points to be rather hard to come by overall.
"Defense travels," goes the expression. Not so lately for the Browns, which yielded nearly 30 points per road trip last season. That largely explains Overs prevailing in eight of the past 10 away outings. With Cleveland's defense already injury-bitten, the Jaguars should score in the 20s. Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson has been dismal, so look for more handoffs that can produce more points than in recent games.
The Browns held Cowboys running backs to 3.7 yards per carry. Now Cleveland faces an unsettled Jaguars' backfield. Travis Etienne had a key fumble at Miami and lost snaps to Tank Bigsby, who was far more impressive. Look for Etienne to get 10-12 carries and stay Under this number.
Amari had a rough Week 1 outing as the entire Browns offense struggled en route to getting blown out by the Cowboys. While Cooper struggled and had a miserable box score, there is still a lot to be encouraged by. First and foremost he received 9 targets (led the team) and he has easily been Deshaun’s favorite target. Prior to Week 1’s dud, Cooper had eclipsed this number in his previous four games with Watson under center, while averaging 8 targets, 6.25 receptions, and 111 receiving yards. He will face a Jags secondary missing numerous starters including their top corner.
Deshaun Watson wasn't as bad as his stats indicate; his receivers dropped four passes, including a sure 40-yard touchdown. He could get tackle Jack Conklin back, as Conklin (knee) practiced on a limited basis Wednesday. We know the Jags will be without top corner Tyson Campbell (hamstring). Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS as a home favorite with Trevor Lawrence, failing to cover by 4.1 points per game. Look for a game that goes down to the wire and grab the points.
The Browns have won the last two meetings with the Jaguars but both teams lost last Sunday but the Jaguars covered. Now the Jaguars are at home with the visiting Browns and the visitors look like they have trouble at quarterback. Where is Joe Flacco? The Jaguars were up 14 nothing over Miami and then imploded and allowed the Dolphins to win. Deshaun Watson was 24 of 45 for 169 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions against the Cowboys and he wasn't even that good. I feel confident that Jacksonville is going to be fine at home, but I don't feel confident that the Browns are going to be very good anywhere as long as Watson is quarterbacking. I'll take the Jaguars.
The Jags did nothing special offensively vs what I think is a suspect MIA defense. They mustered 267 net yards. Browns defense gave up just 265 net yards Week 1. Deshaun Watson is a fugazi QB; CLE has 23 offensive TDs scored in 13 games (several in garbage time) to 17 turnovers. He wont push ball downfield and Browns OL is beat up and run game suspect. Without deep ball they are cooked. Browns D home/road splits were fluky last year. This group will travel, Trevor Lawrence leaves me wanting more. Doubt either team gets above 21 here. Jags home games 11-6 to the under last 2 years