Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
This is undoubtedly a lot of points the Chiefs are giving against a statistically strong defense, but if you dig deeper into the Broncos, you'll notice they have beaten up on mediocre-to-poor offenses for most of the season. That is not how one would describe Kansas City, especially with most of its offensive playmakers healthy. KC has been terrible ATS this year, but what it has consistently done well under Andy Reid is bounce back from losses. This would mark the Chiefs' third-largest cover of the season, but this is the perfect opponent against which KC can get right. As R.J. said below, this is all about how many points the Chiefs can score, and I like them to be able to post four touchdowns against most opponents they face. Especially when they get bonus possessions by facing anemic offenses like this one.
The Broncos ended their ATS skid last week, losing 10-9 at Baltimore, but what would have happened had Lamar Jackson not gotten hurt? I love backing arguably the NFL's top team off a loss. Kansas City has beaten Denver 13 straight times. Over the past six meetings, the Chiefs have outscored the Broncos 168-74. Russell Wilson's Broncos average a league-low 13.8 points and just lost Courtland Sutton again due to a hamstring injury. With Kansas City on an 0-4-1 ATS skid, we're getting value at anything below double digits.
The Chiefs are coming off a tough loss and have to go back on the road to face a divisional rival, but I actually love this spot for them. They followed up each of their previous two losses by beating the Bucs and 49ers on the road by double digits, and the Broncos certainly are nowhere near the caliber of those teams. The Denver offense has just 14 TDs in 12 games, and I have no faith that they'll hit 17 points in any given game, so the Chiefs are probably covering if they get to 27 and might not even need that much. Broncos players probably know the coach isn't going to survive the offseason, so I can't expect full effort the rest of the way, and in this matchup that would mean a boat race.