The Chiefs defense have allowed the most yards in the NFL, and it’s part of why they’re 0-2 ATS. That continues a trend from last season when Kansas City closed out 1-6 ATS in its last seven. The Chargers have gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last six at Kansas City and covered both meetings last season, outgaining the Chiefs offense each time. I took the points with the Chargers.

The Chiefs have been overpriced for nearly a full calendar year. Of their last 13 games, they have covered twice. This line inched up to a full touchdown, making L.A. an inviting pick. QB Justin Herbert is the real deal, and he attacks a defense that has yielded a hefty 7.6 yards per play, largely owing to a 72 percent completion rate by the opposing passers. On offense, Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes must dig deeper into his bag of tricks to account for a restructured OL still finding its way.

My power ratings think this line is far too light and that the Chiefs should be bigger favorites. But that's been the problem for everyone, right? The Chiefs have had massive issues covering since the midpoint of last season even though they win most of their games. So with this line creeping up to seven, I think it's time to jump on the Chargers. Justin Herbert has played exceedingly well so far despite it not being reflected on the scoreboard, and Joey Bosa's injury doesn't worry me as the Chiefs' issues have been on the defensive side of the ball. The Chiefs are going to get their points, but they'll give up plenty as well.