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Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
Even if you throw out the Titans' pitiful performance last week, there are so many concerns about the team -- namely, offensive line and defense -- that do make it hard to trust against a squad like the Seahawks. Then consider that Seattle posted 7.2 yards per play against Indianapolis last week, and it sure feels like the offense has found an identity with Russell Wilson again getting off to a hot start. As R.J. already mentioned here, a backdoor cover is always a concern with the Titans' playmakers, but there's a chance the Seahawks dominate in front of the 12th Man, and that's how I'm leaning.
Tennessee can’t play any worse than it did at home in Week 1, when Arizona bulldozed its way to a blowout win. The Titans have had to stew about it all week. They know they can’t win without the threat of RB Derrick Henry. If you don’t run him, play action doesn’t work well. I’m looking for Tennessee to go back to basics this week and play a tough game at Seattle, so I took the points.
Home-field advantage has ebbed in the NFL, but it stays relevant in Seattle. Since QB Russell Wilson arrived, the Seahawks have won 77 percent straight-up in their building. They have covered six of the last nine overall at home and are on a 5-0 ATS streak in September games. The Titans’ defense allowed 38 points to Arizona in the first three quarters before the Cardinals packed it in. Tennessee's vaunted offense stumbled badly out of the blocks, too, with Ryan Tannehill suffering six sacks and RB Derrick Henry kept in check.
This line moved two points off the lookahead, which should mean looking at Tennessee, but the OL and defensive issues were so bad that it's hard to see everything getting fixed in one week (though running more play action on offense would certainly help). Seattle dominated what may turn out to be a very solid Indianapolis team last week, and you could argue the Titans and Colts are even in terms of team power rating at this point. It's worth worrying about a backdoor cover from an offense with top-notch weapons like Tennessee, but I have faith in the Seahawks hanging up a big number in the first half and keeping the Titans out of reach.
I love Seattle in this spot...but I hate the number. The Seahawks are a weird enough team alone, much less having to eat five and the hook. Look, I understand most will see -250 and move along, certainly understand it, but I feel much more comfortable eating that as opposed to the spread. The Seahawks are 17-1 SU in home games in the month of September under Pete Carroll and I think it moves to 18. The Titans have real problems, both with new OC Todd Downing and its secondary. Add in the public doesn't know yet that they don't have a kicker and the ML and spread will jump. Good parlay team option here. A win is fine with me.