Washington @ Pittsburgh

Washington has a huge rest advantage here, plus the Steelers are dealing with the loss of pass rusher Bud Dupree (8 sacks, 2 forced fumbles). Pittsburgh's run defense hasn't been the same since Devin Bush tore his ACL in Week 6. Grab the points as Washington rookie Antonio Gibson (4.6 ypc, 11 TDs) helps keep this close.

Washington's defense has had very impressive outings against other NFC East teams, but the only non-NFC East opponent that has not scored at least 30 against Washington is Cincinnati, which lost quarterback Joe Burrow halfway through the game. My model says Pittsburgh covers more than 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.

The Steelers’ unbeaten straight-up record is treading on thin ice. The offense was butt-ugly against Baltimore, and its four days between outings leave scant time for repairs. The quick turnaround is a stark contrast to the Football Team’s 10-day break. Alex Smith has settled in as Washington’s quarterback and is spared the usual heat from a ferocious pass rusher, LB Bud Dupree (knee). Despite the difference of seven straight-up wins, keep in mind that this is a matchup of division leaders.

The Steelers just got done playing a Wednesday game that was far from a walkover, with their offense struggling with drops and their defense losing a key player in LB Bud Dupree (knee). Washington essentially is coming off a bye after playing six days earlier with an offense that's hitting its stride running the ball, piling up 346 yards over the last two games. Washington's defense is quietly one of the best in the league, ranking fifth in DVOA and sixth in points per drive. I think Washington makes this a low-scoring, ball-control game that stays within a score.

The Football Team love has gone a little too far in the market this week. My simulations make the Steelers -8.8 home favorites after a questionable performance against a depleted Ravens team. I have no reason to believe the Steelers won't bounce back with a more average performance against this Washington team. Lay it at -7 or better.

Washington coach Ron Rivera has brought his team a long since the midway point of the season. Unfortunately, the Football Team faces an undefeated Steelers club that currently owns the No. 1 seed in the AFC Playoffs and would like to keep it that way. Expect a strong defensive effort against Alex Smith and the improved Washington offense.

There are numerous reasons to back the Steelers on Monday night, but there are two that primarily stand out to me. The first is that there’s now, finally, value on Pittsburgh with the line. The second is that Mike Tomlin was infuriated after his team’s showing against Baltimore. There is no doubt in my mind that Tomlin has spent the last week getting on his team, particularly ahead of a game against an opponent who could be blown out. The Steelers are going to use this as a get-right game. It’s unlikely that Pittsburgh will finish the regular season undefeated, but there’s still games against Buffalo and Indianapolis to come. On Monday night, the Steelers keep their blemish-free streak going.

The Steelers dealt with major inconveniences this week, and typically they don't excel as big favorites. Washington has 36 sacks and will pressure Ben Roethlisberger. This is going to be closer than most people think.

I didn't like the Steelers when this spread was 8.5 but will jump now that it's under 7. The movement likely was when Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger popped up on the injury report over the weekend (knee), but he's surely going to play through it. The Steelers also get back a key defender in end Stephon Tuitt reserve/COVID-19 list. Mike Tomlin's team is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 at home vs. teams with a losing road record. Washington's only road win this year was against awful Dallas on Thanksgiving.

The Pittsburgh Steelers come into this matchup with the number one scoring defense in the NFL, allowing just 17 points per game. They lead the NFL with 22 takeaways and are tops in pass defense. Washington comes into this game with the number two pass defense and is ranked ninth in scoring defense, allowing just over 22 points per game. Washington has struggled on offense, at just 22 per game. This has all the makings of a low-scoring defensive slugfest and points will be at a premium. The Under has cashed in four of the last five meetings overall. I have a slight lean towards the Steelers, but the number looks low.