This is one of those "benefit of the doubt" picks in that I actually think this should be a pick 'em, but the significant disparity in coaching talent has me leaning towards the Rams. If you've watched these teams, you know that Sean McVay can win his team games, while Kliff Kingsbury does the opposite. Now, when it comes to the game play itself, Arizona is on an 0-4 ATS streak while there's value on LA after its surprisingly bad loss last week to San Francisco. The Rams defense is going to get after Kyler Murray, and if the offense can keep the turnovers down, there should be enough to cover the field goal.

The Cardinals are 1-3 straight up and 0-4 ATS in their last four games. QB Kyler Murray landed hard on his shoulder two weeks ago and has not been the same. Arizona's defense has started to fall apart at the seams, allowing 146 points over the last five weeks - the reason being it has lost five starters since the beginning of the season. The Rams' offense and defense both rank in the top seven of DVOA, and the latter is No. 1 in yards allowed per play.

Kyler Murray hasn't looked right over the last few weeks as he battles a shoulder injury, and the returns speak for themselves: a Cardinals offense that had topped 430 yards in five straight games has averaged just 306 yards in the last two weeks against the Seahawks and Patriots, two defenses that struggled mightily in the first half of the season. This Rams defense qualifies as a brutal matchup, ranking first in points per drive while being great against both the run and the pass. The Rams offense has struggled with turnovers (11 in their last three games) and ranks 23rd in points per drive. I can see both these coaches coming in with conservative plans for injury and ball control reasons, getting us Under.

This game is the battle of the inconsistent-yet-talented teams. Los Angeles laid an egg last week against San Francisco, which has proved to have the Rams' number. Arizona couldn't close the deal against an equally inconsistent Patriots team. I betting more so on the defensive talent of the Rams in this game. Look for their defensive line to make things tough for Cardinals QB Kyler Murray.

The Cardinals are on an 0-4 ATS skid, which has created value on them Sunday. It's true Kyler Murray is struggling, but Jared Goff is coming off a three-turnover game of his own. This game is Arizona's season. Play on the desperate home dog and look for the Cards to improve to 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight in the underdog role.

The Cardinals did nothing last week against the Patriots. Their offense isn't clicking the way it was earlier. I don't think Arizona will do much against this Rams defense. Look for L.A. to bounce back strong from the 49ers' loss and cover.