Denver @ Kansas City

The Chiefs are unstoppable when they're locked in, but their biggest letdown spots come at home. They lost at home to the Raiders, didn't come close to covering at home vs. the Panthers and sleptwalk through a home win over the Pats. After already annihilating the Broncos at Denver, and coming off showdown wins over the Bucs and Raiders, I'll look for a less than premium performance here. Drew Lock is back and he'll have all his key weapons. Grab the points as K.C. wins a 34-24 type of game.

Last time these teams met, it was a snowy game that saw the Chiefs score in virtually every way possible. Fast forward to Sunday, and nothing really has changed for both teams. So I can't see anything being different on the scoreboard. Kansas City will have to learn to put teams away, and there's no better way to start than against a division rival.

The Broncos look to avenge a 43-16 home loss in Week 7. Denver's defense ranks 10th in DVOA and seventh in yards allowed per play compared to the Chiefs at No. 17 in DVOA. Kansas City's last three games have been a close call at home versus Carolina, a four-point win in Las Vegas and a three-point triumph at Tampa Bay. It failed to cover in all three. If there ever was a spot for a letdown, this could be it.

This game has mismatch written all over it, and even though the underdog Broncos have been very dangerous the last several weeks, this game won't be close. The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL and Patrick Mahomes is having another MVP season as he continues to put up video game-type numbers. Kansas City has played much better defensively and will feast on a banged-up and mentally defeated Denver team that has lost 10 straight meetings and is just 1-9 ATS during the skid.

Kansas City is 0-9 ATS as a home favorite against a divisional opponent following a win in which it allowed more than three points and never trailed. In their lone active date this season, the Chiefs lost 40-32 to Las Vegas while laying 11 points. Also, Kansas City is a brutal 0-15 ATS following a win, laying more than six points at home and play their next two games on the road. In his brief career, Drew Lock has been a six-plus point road underdog three times when the Broncos weren’t on a winning streak. Not only is he 3-0 ATS, he is 2-1 straight up. Too many points here.