The Chargers have only defeated the Jets and Jaguars over their last nine games. In that span, the only spreads they've covered have been 7.5 points or higher. The Bills are coming off a bye week against a Los Angeles team that has proven to play worse when it travels (0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS). Austin Ekeler’s return does offer some angst, but the defensive injuries concern me far more. This is going to be a high-scoring game, so keep an eye on the over, but I’m going to roll with Buffalo and Josh Allen to take care of the injured visitors.

My model says the Bills cover 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value with Buffalo at this number. The Chargers defense gives up a ton of points. These are the point totals allowed by the Chargers since October: 28, 29, 31, 31, 29, 30, and 38. Buffalo averages 27, is coming off a bye and has put up 30 and 44 in its past two games. In addition, the Chargers have made two previous trips to the East Coast this season and lost by seven and eight points. I'm on the Bills.

This game features two teams that have been cashing Overs all season, and I think it continues this week. The Chargers should be able to score on many of their drives against a struggling Bills defense that ranks 26th on third downs and 28th in points per drive, and with the Chargers placing Melvin Ingram on injured reserve late in the week, the Bills should have an easier time throwing the ball in this matchup with a team that has given up 28 points or more in seven straight games.

This is a good spot to take the Chargers, playing as mid-range underdogs against a good but flawed Bills team. The Chargers offense has been incredible outside of their game against the Dolphins, and they can score points against a Bills defense that's struggled this year. The Chargers defense has given up a lot of points lately but doesn't have the yardage totals to match, so there could be some positive regression in store. And the Chargers can extend drives with their seventh-ranked third-down offense against the Bills' 26th-ranked third-down defense. Both these teams are capable of rallying and making it a close game late, so if you can get more than four in this type of matchup, take the points.

The weather looks good, with temperatures in the mid-40s and little wind, and I'm expecting an entertaining shootout between Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. Look for the Over to improve to 8-0 in L.A.'s last eight games.

I like the Bills a lot. With the Dolphins losing last week, Buffalo can put some distance between them in the AFC East race. Josh Allen should have a huge game against this Chargers' defense. Buffalo is rested and should win by at least a touchdown.

Gotta love a home team stepping out of a bye week against a struggling visitor journeying cross-country. The Chargers are 1-4 straight-up on the road, and their three victims are a combined 3-26-1. Rookie QB Justin Herbert has been eye-catching, but recent injuries to running backs have hamstrung him. The Bills were afforded an extra week to put the Hail Murray loss at Arizona behind them. QB Josh Allen can look forward to strafing a suspect secondary.