This is simply a value pick at -2.5 ... I wouldn't touch it above that number as the Browns will be without stud pass-rusher Myles Garrett. However, I have no reason to trust Carson Wentz. Check out the news feed as weather might be a factor here too. Thus, I will go with the Browns because of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

With rain expected for this game, the conditions should favor the team that can run the ball and defend the run best, and in both cases that has been the Browns this season. The Eagles have also been the team more susceptible to turnovers this season, with the offense and defense both ranking in the bottom five of turnover rate (while the Browns defense ranks third). Not having Myles Garrett is tough, and the movement in the line has shown that, but I think the line was mispriced all along and would have liked the Browns up to 6 with Garrett healthy. Now that we're under the key number of 3, there's no reason to hold back any longer.

This spread has stayed critically at a field goal in large part because of pass-rusher supreme Myles Garrett’s illness. He is declared out, but it may not matter since Philly QB Carson Wentz has been impotent against far less. He tops the unwanted daily double of categories with the most sacks and interceptions thrown. The Browns’ offense has been just as immobile lately, with 16 combined points scored in the past two games. Yet inclement weather was a factor, and relatively paradise conditions are expected in Cleveland’s third straight home gig. The usually powerful ground game should be all the Browns need.

Was hoping to get 3.5 with the Eagles, but that's not happening now that Myles Garrett has been ruled out. Philly will finally get back to its ground game Sunday, limiting Carson Wentz's mistakes. The return of left guard Isaac Seumalo is huge. The Browns are 6-3 but have been outscored by 28 points this season. They shouldn't be laying a full field goal here.

The Eagles looked completely out of sync offensively last week against the New York Giants. Their ineffectiveness resulted in a series of lost possessions. Against a much better team in Cleveland, those lost possessions will create a significant disadvantage in time of possession because of the Browns' ability to run the football. Defensively, Cleveland has a front four that's able to make that a reality against Philadelphia's offense.