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nfl - Sun 11/22 | 6:00 PM UTC | Mercedes-Benz Superdome |

Atlanta @ New Orleans

Odds by William Hill Sportsbook
ATS
NO -3.5
-7
Over / Under
49.5
51
ML
NO -185
-215

Matchup breakdown

Atlanta
New Orleans
PROJ SCORE
4-7
W-L
9-2
5-6
ATS W-L
6-5
5-6
O/U
7-4
1.3
PT DIFF
9.2
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Past Expert Picks

Larry Hartstein

Senior Analyst
Fri 11/20

Atlanta @ New Orleans | 11/22 | 6:00 PM UTC

New Orleans -4

WIN

The Saints are the NFC's best team, they've won six in a row, and their defense has rounded into form. New Orleans went 5-0 ATS without Drew Brees last year. While the Falcons have been impressive since firing Dan Quinn, they haven't faced a team like the Saints. Lay the points.

+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS
+625 23-15 IN LAST 38 ATL ATS PICKS
+279 25-20 IN LAST 45 NO ATS PICKS

Mike Tierney

Top Dog
Tue 11/17

Atlanta @ New Orleans | 11/22 | 6:00 PM UTC

Atlanta +5

LOSS

This pick is not all about injured QB Drew Brees, though the drop-off to James Winston or Taysom Hill is substantial. Since Raheem Morris replaced Dan Quinn as coach, the Falcons are 3-1 straight up, with the only loss occurring on the final play. The bye week came in handy, especially for oft-ailing WR Julio Jones, who has had two monster receiving games (137 yards apiece) and a 97-yarder with Morris in charge. Atlanta has covered in all but one of its last eight road games.

+90 2-1-1 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS
+246 7-4 IN LAST 11 ATL ATS PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 NO ATS PICKS

Zack Cimini

Contrarian with Chutzpah
Sun 11/22

Atlanta @ New Orleans | 11/22 | 6:00 PM UTC

New Orleans -3.5

WIN

In the offseason, New Orleans made a bold move by signing Taysom Hill to a big deal. With Drew Brees ailing, the Saints have now put their confidence in Hill. Expect the defense to boost New Orleans against a Falcons team that ranks 27th in red-zone efficiency and has an uncanny ability of making fourth-quarter mistakes. Grab the Saints.

+280 5-2 IN LAST 7 NFL ATS PICKS
+480 7-2 IN LAST 9 ATL ATS PICKS

R.J. White

Super Stat Geek
Fri 11/20

Atlanta @ New Orleans | 11/22 | 6:00 PM UTC

Atlanta +3.5

LOSS

I liked the Falcons earlier in the week and would've jumped all over the number had I known Taysom Hill would be starting this game. The lookahead line for this matchup was Saints -7, and you need to adjust more than four points for the drop from Drew Brees to Hill based on what we've seen so far from the versatile offensive weapon. The Falcons are playing well under Raheem Morris, but the one area where they've had consistent trouble is running the ball. That wasn't going to happen anyway against an elite Saints rush defense. With the Atlanta offense healthy, the Falcons will do enough to cover this number and could win outright unless Hill has a hidden gear we don't know about.

+490 45-36-3 IN LAST 84 NFL PICKS
+1095 32-19 IN LAST 51 ATL ATS PICKS
+214 9-6 IN LAST 15 NO ATS PICKS

Emory Hunt

The Czar of the Playbook
Thu 11/19

Atlanta @ New Orleans | 11/22 | 6:00 PM UTC

New Orleans -5

WIN

Although the Saints will be starting Jameis Winston at QB for the foreseeable future, don't expect a drop-off offensively. In fact, expect the opposite. Winston gives them more upside in the downfield passing game, which has been an issue for the Saints this season. This addition could put more pressure on the Falcons' offense to maximize every possession, which will be tough against an improved New Orleans defense.

+300 3-0-1 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS
+1072 15-4 IN LAST 19 ATL ATS PICKS
+720 15-7 IN LAST 22 NO ATS PICKS

Adam Silverstein

Florida Favorite
Sun 11/22

Atlanta @ New Orleans | 11/22 | 6:00 PM UTC

New Orleans -3.5

WIN

Great teams find ways to win games, and great coaches game plan appropriately to win games. Though I may personally have problems with the way Sean Payton uses Taysom Hill when he has Drew Brees available, Payton is clearly excited to roll with Hill over Jameis Winston in this game. If the Saints were going up against a stronger defense, perhaps I would fade them as a home favorite here. Atlanta can score, but the New Orleans defense (fifth in DVOA) is going to step up because that’s what top-tier teams do in situations like this. Payton, Hill, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are enough for me to put a sprinkle on the Saints here. I like it better at -3 if you can get it, but I haven’t seen that line and time is running out.

+783 21-12 IN LAST 33 NO ATS PICKS

Hank Goldberg

Hammer
Wed 11/18

Atlanta @ New Orleans | 11/22 | 6:00 PM UTC

New Orleans -5

WIN

It doesn't matter who plays quarterback for New Orleans in this one. I think Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill will split the duties. With Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray and the other weapons, I don't think Atlanta can handle the Saints. The Falcons are 3-1 since they fired Dan Quinn, but none of those wins came against any team as good as New Orleans. Lay the points.

+195 3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS
+1022 17-6 IN LAST 23 NO ATS PICKS
+339 9-5 IN LAST 14 ATL ATS PICKS

SDQL Gurus

Serious Scientists
Sat 11/21

Atlanta @ New Orleans | 11/22 | 6:00 PM UTC

New Orleans -3.5

WIN

Taysom Hill will be asked to manage the game, and this should be enough because the Saints have a good defense and a good running game. The Falcons are 0-14 ATS as underdogs when they are off two consecutive games with a positive Delta Points Scored and were favored in the most recent. The Saints are 11-0 ATS when they are off a home game, they benefitted from a positive takeaway margin in each of their last two games and they are facing a team that has averaged at least 200 passing yards a game. We are laying the points.

+270 8-5 IN LAST 13 NFL PICKS

Kyle Akins

SportsBook Breakers
Sat 11/21

Atlanta @ New Orleans | 11/22 | 6:00 PM UTC

Atlanta +3.5

LOSS

This play is not a knock on Taysom Hill but an acknowledgement that this line was very likely to be mispriced to begin with and then correctly dropped when the Saints lost Drew Brees. Atlanta is better on the road than people realize while New Orleans is not nearly as good at home as perceived. Atlanta has completely outplayed expectations on the road over the last year. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS (16.27 points per game) since Nov. 10, 2019, on the road in non-Monday night games. Prediction: Atlanta by four.

+390 5-1 IN LAST 6 NFL PICKS

Atlanta

player
QBMattRyan
18.51fan duel$7,800
20.19draft kings$6,300
20.93cbs sports
player
RBToddGurley
11.36fan duel$6,700
12.93draft kings$5,900
10.36cbs sports
player
RBBrianHill
4.67fan duel$5,000
5.29draft kings$4,000
4.24cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
M. RyanMatt Ryan26/392911.600.780.1920.9
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
T. GurleyTodd Gurley16.1500.643.10.1810.4
B. HillBrian Hill8.0280.163.60.124.2
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
J. JonesJulio Jones6.2890.3614.30.0611.0
C. RidleyCalvin Ridley4.9690.6514.20.0511.1
H. HurstHayden Hurst4.6500.3210.80.056.9
R. GageRussell Gage3.5350.1610.10.044.5
O. ZaccheausOlamide Zaccheaus1.7240.0914.00.022.9
T. GurleyTodd Gurley2.0130.076.40.1810.4
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
A. DSTATL DST0.870.790.621.82.02.1

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Damontae Kazee
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

New Orleans

player
QBTaysomHill
20.1fan duel$4,500
21.41draft kings$4,800
21.95cbs sports
player
QBJameisWinston
5.31fan duel$7,200
5.34draft kings$5,900
6.18cbs sports
player
RBAlvinKamara
19.82fan duel$9,700
24.21draft kings$9,200
16.72cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
T. HillTaysom Hill16/231741.400.590.4322.0
J. WinstonJameis Winston6/9670.560.250.086.2
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
A. KamaraAlvin Kamara13.5560.664.20.2016.7
T. HillTaysom Hill10.0560.265.60.4322.0
L. MurrayLatavius Murray11.3430.293.80.136.9
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
M. ThomasMichael Thomas6.8780.4911.40.0710.7
A. KamaraAlvin Kamara6.2540.328.80.2016.7
E. SandersEmmanuel Sanders4.6510.4311.00.057.8
J. CookJared Cook2.8390.5514.00.067.2
M. CallawayMarquez Callaway2.6300.1711.60.084.0
T. SmithTre`Quan Smith2.3280.3612.30.025.0
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
N. DSTNO DST2.880.780.711.82.13.0

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Drew Brees, Anthony Lanier, Johnson Bademosi
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

last updated: 11/22/2020 16:49 GMT