With the line shifting nearly a field goal before kickoff, the value lies with the home dog. The Titans offense has been slowed as of late, but when you have Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, you're only one move from an explosive play. Combined, these teams have one quality victory this season and that's Tennessee over Buffalo. I do like the Colts defense -- and I do worry about the Titans defense -- but when push comes to shove, I'm going to back the team I trust more to get a key score in the fourth quarter, and that's Tennessee with (unbelievably) Ryan Tannehill.

I like this play for the same reason all those sharps jumped on Indianapolis +2.5 to push this to Tennessee +1. I expect this game to be close, as these are two evenly-matched teams, who will play strength on strength, and weakness on weakness. I'll take the home dog.

This game has seen a ton of line movement as bettors look to capitalize on a healthy Indianapolis team that will sell out to stop Derrick Henry and make someone beat them. While I have some concerns about the Titans secondary, I have to trust the model at play the moneyline at +100 and +102. I have the Titans winning just over 55 percent of simulations, meaning they should be -123 home favorites on the moneyline.

Lots of little factors add up to a likely sub-50 aggregate score. The Titans’ offense revolves around RB Derrick Henry, and Indy is tied for first in yards allowed per carry (3.3). Its defense is best overall in the league and could slow QB Ryan Tannehill’s roll. The Titans are tops in passes defensed and interceptions, which could bedevil QB Philip Rivers, who's coming off an awful game. Tennessee DE Jadeveon Clowney is due back from injury rehab.

Wish I'd jumped on this earlier but I'll still back the Colts at pick'-em to look a lot better than they did last week vs. Baltimore. Indy will slow down Derrick Henry, making it tougher on a Tennessee offense that has come back to earth. T.Y. Hilton's return is significant because of the attention he draws. Back Indy to improve to 7-2 ATS in its last nine visits to Nashville.

The one thing the Colts do well is stop the run, which is a tad concerning for the Titans and Derrick Henry -- but how can any Colts backer trust Philip Rivers (see story in news feed)? He has five turnovers in Indy's three losses, and the five wins aren't all that impressive: Vikings, Jets, Bears, Bengals and Lions. All are at least two games under .500 except Chicago, which is the most overrated winning team in the NFL. With Jadeveon Clowney and AJ Brown now both set to play after being questionable early in the week, Tennessee will win by at least a field goal and take control of the AFC South.

The Colts are good defensively, but Philip Rivers is shaky. They were totally shut down in the second half against Baltimore. Tennessee has got more weapons, enough to cover this number.

The favorite has covered six of the last seven meetings, and the Colts have failed to cover their last four games as underdogs. The Colts' wins this season have come against teams they were supposed to beat like the Jets, Bengals and Lions and lost to the one-win Jags. I don’t want to call them phony, but front-runner may describe them better. In the first battle of the favorites to win the AFC South, I’m on the Titans.

I hope you were able to jump on this number when it opened at 2.5, because there was only one way it was going to move. The Titans offense has struggled in two of its last three games, both times against great defenses, and it has another one coming to town here in the Colts, who only allowed 266 yards to the Ravens despite their loss. The Titans defense finally played well for much of their win over the Bears, but the Bears' inability to execute deserves just as much credit for that showing. Throw in a fumble return TD inflating the results of both sides of this matchup last week, and we're getting good line value even still with the Colts remaining underdogs.