It remains to be seen whether the Raiders will have their full complement of players this week, but even if they do -- which I'm assuming -- I would still roll with the Buccaneers at this number. Simply put, I've been wrong about Tampa Bay this season. I thought the addition of Tom Brady would be negligible despite his career greatness, but now that he's comfortable, you can see the offense flowing. Defensively, there's no doubting what the Bucs bring to the table. The Raiders have not gone up against that kind of adversity yet, and Las Vegas will ultimately falter even if it holds an early advantage or the game is close in the second half.

I've always said that the talent level from the best team to the worst team is very close. The starting QB is such a huge part of a NFL team and Tom Brady makes a big difference. Brady will not let his team have a letdown after last week's big win over Green Bay. The biggest difference in this game is the Tampa defense is ranked No. 1 and the Raiders defense is ranked No. 31.

The bye-week advantage for the Raiders has vanished with Covid concerns that are impacting their offensive line. Some, if not all, of the starters might be compelled to sit out. That would be unwelcome news against the No. 1-ranked defense in yards per play allowed. The Bucs swallowed up potent -- and healthy -- Green Bay on Sunday. Imagine how they might snuff out Las Vegas line and its makeshift line. On offense, enough playmakers are available on the Bucs to compensate for QB Tom Brady’s slight decline.

This Bucs' defense is extremely physical and should wreak havoc on a Raiders' offensive line dealing with injuries. I don't think Las Vegas can protect Derek Carr as well as it did versus Kansas City. Tampa Bay also has a strong running game to complement Tom Brady. Lay the points.

The Bucs have an elite defense and I think they'll make things a lot more difficult for Derek Carr than the Chiefs did. (Las Vegas went to K.C. in Week 5 and won 40-32.) In my simulations, Tampa Bay is covering 57 percent of my simulations. Lay the field goal.

The Bucs established themselves as the best team in the NFC last week, and as such we're getting a gift by being able to lay less than three in this matchup. The Raiders will have issues running the ball against the league's best rush defense, and the pass defense hasn't exactly been slouching either, ranking third in net yards per attempt. On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady should have no issues scoring against a defense that ranks 30th in points allowed per drive, especially with his supporting cast healthy. I'm not particularly worried about the rest advantage either; it may even be a disadvantage with the Raiders getting to celebrate beating the Chiefs for an extra week.