The Broncos are a better team than they get credit for being, and with Drew Lock back in the lineup, I do think this will be somewhat of a competitive game. I also think the line is a tad high as I have the Chiefs as a six-point road favorite here. Nevertheless, if anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt, it's Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes & Co. Even if this stays close for a bit, Kansas City should pull away in the second half and cover by low double digits. Don't let the fact that KC is on a 2-2 ATS streak shy you away from backing the best team in the league in a key divisional game.

Drew Lock's worst game by far last season was against the Chiefs in the snow, and that's the same setup he gets here. The Broncos defense looked great last week, but that was against a Pats team that hadn't been able to practice. The Chiefs, who lost their last division game and have the Jets on deck, won't be looking past this one. Lay the TD.

The Broncos simply don't have the offense to keep up with Kansas City. Denver's offense is scoring just 20.0 points a game; only three teams (Washington and both New York teams) are worse. My model says the Chiefs cover almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.

Snow? What’s a little snow to QB Patrick Mahomes, who was efficient with flakes falling last December in Kansas City? It was the Chiefs’ opponent, the Broncos, whose offense seemed affected by the conditions. And, if K.C. needs to rely more on the ground game, RB Le’Veon Bell, jettisoned by the Jets this week, arrives in the nick of time. It is rare to secure the NFL’s premier team at such a small spread. Denver depended on PK Brandon McManus for all of its points last Sunday with a half-dozen field goals. Inclement weather could limit his contributions.

Snow is expected at Denver on Sunday with 10 mile per hour winds, which should help keep this game Under. The Chiefs have already kept four of their six games Under the 2020 inflated totals, and they stayed Under in their last six road games dating back to last season. The Chiefs' last four meetings with the Broncos have stayed Under as well. Under is the play.

Drew Lock should be better in his second week back, especially if Noah Fant returns from injury. The Broncos have won two straight and get the Chiefs in a difficult travel spot after their Monday game in Buffalo. Back Denver to stay within the number.