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nfl - Sun 10/25 | 5:00 PM UTC | Paul Brown Stadium |

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Odds by William Hill Sportsbook
ATS
CLE -4.5
-4
Over / Under
50
51.5
ML
CLE -215
-190

Matchup breakdown

Cleveland
Cincinnati
PROJ SCORE
8-3
W-L
2-8
4-7
ATS W-L
7-4
6-5
O/U
6-5
-1.9
PT DIFF
-5.4
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Past Expert Picks

Larry Hartstein

Senior Analyst
Wed 10/21

Cleveland @ Cincinnati | 10/25 | 5:00 PM UTC

Cleveland -3

PUSH

The Bengals gave up 430 yards to the Colts last week and they are dealing with turmoil due to the coaching staff's handling of Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap. While Cleveland got battered by the Steelers, the Browns showed in the earlier matchup vs. Cincinnati that they can move the ball at will. Back Cleveland, which averaged 7.5 yards per play in the first meeting, to sweep Cincy and cover.

+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS
+66 4-3-3 IN LAST 10 CLE ATS PICKS

Mike Tierney

Top Dog
Sat 10/24

Cleveland @ Cincinnati | 10/25 | 5:00 PM UTC

Cleveland -3

PUSH

The more TV commercials Baker Mayfield appears in, the worse he gets. The Bengals reappear on the Browns’ schedule at an opportune time for him. Cleveland rolled up 35 points on them in Week 2. With Cincy allowing 5.1 yards per carry, tied for second most, Mayfield can lean on his top-ranked rushing unit. RB Nick Chubb’s season is out, but his absence is more than offset by Joe Mixon (foot) missing. Another key absentee: Cincy CB William Jackson (concussion), who intercepted Mayfield in the prior meeting.

+90 2-1-1 IN LAST 4 NFL ATS PICKS
+846 14-5-1 IN LAST 20 CIN ATS PICKS
+285 5-2-2 IN LAST 9 CLE ATS PICKS

R.J. White

Super Stat Geek
Thu 10/22

Cleveland @ Cincinnati | 10/25 | 5:00 PM UTC

Cleveland -3

PUSH

Many people probably think this game comes down to the health of Baker Mayfield, but here's why that's not the case: the Browns didn't need him to to much at all to win the first meeting between these teams. While the Bengals barely covered in that one thanks to a TD at the end of the game, Cleveland rolled up 215 rushing yards against a bad Bengals run defense, and even with Nick Chubb out and Kareem Hunt nursing an injury, the Browns should continue to have success on the ground here. Joe Burrow has flashed but the Bengals offense hasn't looked great, and their O-line is 31st in adjusted sack rate. That's not good with Myles Garrett and Co. coming to town.

+490 45-36-3 IN LAST 84 NFL PICKS
+597 17-10-4 IN LAST 31 CLE ATS PICKS
+574 19-12-1 IN LAST 32 CIN ATS PICKS

Micah Roberts

Former Vegas Bookmaker
Thu 10/22

Cleveland @ Cincinnati | 10/25 | 5:00 PM UTC

Cleveland -3

PUSH

The key factor here isn’t about past wins, losses, or covers, but more about what team does the best in an area against a team that does poorly defending it. The Browns lead the league in rushing (169 ypg) while the Bengals are No. 27 stopping the run (142 ypg allowed). The Browns are also the most opportunistic in creating turnovers (13) while the Bengals offense has had eight turnovers. The Browns have six game films to figure Joe Burrow out, they bully the Bengals and cover.

Kenny White

Wizard of Odds
Sun 10/25

Cleveland @ Cincinnati | 10/25 | 5:00 PM UTC

Cleveland -3

PUSH

The only team that Cleveland has outgained was Cincinnati in Week 2. The Browns won 35-30, but they outgained the Bengals by 3.5 yards per play. The Browns are very emotional after losing 38-7 to Pittsburgh. Quarterback Baker Mayfield (chest) did not practice last week and was very ineffective. This week it looks like Mayfield is ready to go.

+875 21-11-2 IN LAST 34 NFL PICKS

Tom Fornelli

#TrustTheProcess
Thu 10/22

Cleveland @ Cincinnati | 10/25 | 5:00 PM UTC

UNDER 50.5

LOSS

Despite their performance last week against the Colts, I'm not as confident in Cincinnati's ability to score the roughly 24 points implied by this total. As you'd expect of a rookie QB, Joe Burrow's performance suffers when pressured, and only Carson Wentz has been sacked more often this season. While not elite, Cleveland's pass rush ranks 9th in the NFL in PFF's Pass Rush Pressures metric. I think they put enough pressure on Burrow this Sunday to limit Cincinnati's offensive ceiling and keep us comfortably under the total.

+290 4-1 IN LAST 5 CIN O/U PICKS

Cleveland

player
QBBakerMayfield
17.2fan duel$7,000
18.1draft kings$5,600
19.6cbs sports
player
RBKareemHunt
18.94fan duel$7,100
21.86draft kings$6,800
17.64cbs sports
player
RBD`ErnestJohnson
5.69fan duel$4,900
6.26draft kings$4,000
5.41cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
B. MayfieldBaker Mayfield19/322471.801.200.0819.6
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
K. HuntKareem Hunt18.0850.784.70.2117.6
D. JohnsonD`Ernest Johnson8.1420.165.10.095.4
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
O. BeckhamOdell Beckham4.4740.4916.80.0511.5
J. LandryJarvis Landry4.5680.3015.20.058.9
D. NjokuDavid Njoku2.5320.3612.80.025.4
K. HuntKareem Hunt2.6240.389.20.2117.6
R. HigginsRashard Higgins1.3200.3515.00.024.1
H. BryantHarrison Bryant1.5170.1511.10.022.6
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
C. DSTCLE DST3.090.901.061.82.02.7

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham, Austin Hooper, Taywan Taylor, KhaDarel Hodge, Jacob Phillips, Joe Jackson, Andrew Billings, Curtis Weaver, JoJo Natson, Grant Delpit
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

Cincinnati

player
QBJoeBurrow
19.59fan duel$7,100
21.12draft kings$5,500
22.29cbs sports
player
RBGiovaniBernard
12.43fan duel$4,800
14.79draft kings$4,500
10.58cbs sports
player
RBSamajePerine
2.34fan duel$4,500
2.55draft kings$4,000
2.16cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
J. BurrowJoe Burrow26/382821.800.900.4222.3
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
G. BernardGiovani Bernard12.3410.623.30.1610.6
S. PerineSamaje Perine3.5130.093.60.042.2
J. BurrowJoe Burrow3.4130.183.90.4222.3
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
T. BoydTyler Boyd6.2780.4712.50.0710.9
T. HigginsTee Higgins4.2660.5215.60.089.8
A. GreenA.J. Green4.2540.2912.80.047.1
G. BernardGiovani Bernard3.7280.047.50.1610.6
D. SampleDrew Sample2.8260.169.50.033.6
A. TateAuden Tate1.2170.0714.10.022.1
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
C. DSTCIN DST1.601.260.491.82.02.6

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Joe Mixon, C.J. Uzomah, John Ross, William Jackson III, Trae Waynes, Sam Hubbard, D.J. Reader, Cethan Carter, Josh Tupou, Renell Wren
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

last updated: 10/25/2020 15:46 GMT