No team can keep failing to cover the spread every week, right? Eventually the Jets will cover one, but with the Bills not being in a position to look past anyone after back-to-back losses and the line falling a full three points with Sam Darnold's return, I don't think it'll be here. Darnold is an upgrade over Joe Flacco, but he won't have his top WR in Jamison Crowder, and there just isn't much talent for Darnold to turn to. Lay the 10.

The Jets are a train wreck that just gave up on Le'Veon Bell, which signals to me that they're giving up on the season. Meanwhile the Bills are a playoff-caliber team in the AFC. My model says Buffalo covers almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.

Yes, the Jets might be historically bad. However, Sam Darnold is expected back at QB (he's not great but team is 0-8 all-time without him) and Gang Green might have all three of its top receivers on the field for the first time in 2020. Plus, how is this not a trap/letdown game for Buffalo off back-to-back huge ones vs. Tennessee and Kansas City, on a short week and with another big one Week 8 vs. New England? Josh Allen has not looked sharp of late. I love home dogs at more than +10.5, even without fans.

Playing against the Jets is a gift. I can't believe Adam Gase hasn't been fired yet. Players are jumping ship right and left. Buffalo has issues with its linebacking corps, but the Jets don't have a running back to exploit that. Josh Allen, coming off two losses, will put up huge numbers here.

It's been a really rough year for the Jets. We've reached the part of the season where we're starting to see dissent amongst the coaching staff, and some of the players are starting to publicly voice their frustration. I don't foresee things changing for the better with this team, and they face one of the best in the AFC this week in Buffalo. This is not a good matchup for New York.

The Jets aren't firing Adam Gase now, which means we can expect another lifeless performance. The Bills are on a short week, traveling, and facing an inflated spread, and none of it should matter. Buffalo won the first meeting 27-17 but it wasn't that close. Lay it.