Look, everyone wants to take this game. And if you do, there's really only one side to go on, and that's the Chiefs -- even though Kansas City's line is inflated about two points going into Monday's early evening kickoff. Still, the Chiefs have not lost consecutive games ATS in a calendar year, and they're 4-0 ATS following their last four ATS losses. Patrick Mahomes is also 9-3-1 ATS in evening games with six straight covers; he's also undefeated ATS on Mondays. So while it's tough to take Kansas City as nearly a six-point road favorite against a good Buffalo team, the Chiefs should have their way with the Bills' secondary as Mahomes should get plenty of time in the pocket. Give me KC as the team that bounces back.

The Bills come off being torched in Nashville, but they didn't have All-Pro cornerback Tre'Davious White for that game. He's expected to return Monday and his presence can't be overstated. Kansas City, meanwhile, will be missing Sammy Watkins and perhaps two starting offensive lineman (one for sure). The rainy, cold weather also would seem to help the home side and slow Patrick Mahomes down a bit.

This is a massive total, but it's fully justified. Even though Unders are on a 15-9 NFL run the past two weeks, as regression finally arrived, this game matches truly explosive offenses against suspect defenses. Look for the Over to stay perfect in Buffalo games this season.

I think this line is destined to rise, so I'm going to hop on this number now. We saw on Tuesday that Buffalo clearly isn't in the same tier as Kansas City, a team I'm not docking much for losing to a fired-up division rival. The Chiefs have the No. 2 offense and No. 9 offense in DVOA, while the Bills defense has played a lot worse than expected. The Bills offense also doesn't have a quality rushing attack to take advantage of the Chiefs' defensive weakness. If Josh Allen has to rally back, I think he'll have trouble against a pass defense that ranks second in DVOA. The Chiefs offense should score in bunches against a struggling defense, and that'll get the cover.

The Chiefs suffered their first loss in 14 games last Sunday, falling at home to the Raiders. K.C. will regroup under Andy Reid, and will have a significant rest advantage entering Week 6 at Buffalo. The Bills' defense is too banged up to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Lay it as the Chiefs win and cover in a shootout.

After losing at home to the Raiders last week, the Chiefs are going to be out for blood. Buffalo is on a short week because of having to play a Tuesday game. Look what Ryan Tannehill did to this Bills' defense. What is Patrick Mahomes going to do? K.C. has extra rest. Coming off a loss, the Chiefs will win and cover.