I'm OK with fading Justin Herbert for the time being. Last week I did so with Herbert as a home favorite, and while he's on the road and getting a touchdown this week, we're still good here. Tom Brady looked a bit shaky in his Tampa debut but has rebounded nicely since. He picked Denver apart last week, throwing for three touchdowns while averaging 7.8 yards per attempt. Now, Denver's not a very good team, but it was more Brady's arm strength that I cared about. It's still not what it used to be, but he's not toast, either. And going up against a rookie with plenty of talent, but a lot of flaws to go with it, I like Tampa here at home.

The Chargers have been a dead Under team this year, as the combination of an inconsistent offense with a strong defense has prevented them from scoring more than 20 or giving up more than 23. The Bucs are also trending toward being an Under team as their defense rounds into form, and their excellence against the run means this game will be put in Justin Herbert's hands. As such, I think we see something similar to the Chargers' 21-16 loss last week, keeping us under the total, and I'm going to hop on it now as I think the line continues to sink during the week.