This is a late near-kickoff pick, but I did not expect the Bears to get a full field goal at home when this game should be a pick 'em at worse. Nick Foles is a clear upgrade from Mitch Trubisky, and while the Colts have a better defense than the Falcons did last week, Foles was part of the game plan this week. I do not believe Chicago is going to be a strong playoff team by year's end -- if it even makes the postseason -- but I do believe it is slightly better than the Colts and even better with Foles in and Trubisky out.

With Nick Foles in the Bears lineup, expect the passing game to have much more consistency than it did with Mitch Trubisky under center. What the Bears lose by not having Trubisky starting at QB is in the athleticism department. Expect the Colts; defense to be extra aggressive in getting after Foles, as he won't be able to escape and extend plays like Trubisky. Also, the Colts' offense looks to be hitting its stride at the right time.

The Colts have the NFL's top defense so far and they're coming off two dominant wins ... but let's not forget that they opened Jags-Vikings-Jets. Indy still managed to lose one of those, and now it's laying points on the road against a 3-0 team that upgraded at QB? It's never comfortable to pick against Frank Reich, but a costly Philip Rivers INT is always in play, and Rivers' offense is down two WRs (Parris Campbell, Michael Pittman) and a RB (Marlon Mack). Grab the points.

I don't think this is getting to three, so let's just take it here. Nick Foles takes what was an eight-win team on the market preseason to a nine- or 10-win team, and when you're at that level, you shouldn't be getting nearly a FG at home to anyone but Chiefs-level teams. The Colts aren't that just because they beat up on a pair of awful teams over the last two weeks. They benefited from six picks in those games, but Foles is a lot better at protecting the ball. He may not win games with his arm, but Philip Rivers won't either at this point. I think we're getting the better defense in this matchup, and maybe even the better offense?

Yes, Bears QB Nick Foles was killer in relief of Mitch Trubisky, which has earned him a start. Keep in mind, though, that he chewed up Atlanta’s awful defense to rally Chicago. Indianapolis is the polar opposite, ranked first in passing yards and points allowed. Nor does Foles have the crutch that is versatile RB Tarik Cohen (ACL). The Bears are the weakest of the seven 3-0 teams and are overdue for a defeat. Indy’s offense has exercised the proper caution with QB Philip Rivers, who has gone from a playmaker to an effective game manager.