One needs to consider the opponents both these teams have faced thus far when making evaluations. For the Steelers, it's been the Broncos and Giants; for the Texans, it's been the Ravens and Chiefs. So despite the former being 2-0 and the latter 0-2, that's where you would expect both to be at this point. The problem is that Houston has looked relatively noncompetitive, while Pittsburgh seems to have found its groove again. WIth JuJu Smith-Schuster active, I have the Steelers as a 5.5-point favorite at home, giving me two points of value even despite the awful hook. Desperation is the only thing that could save the Texans in this one.

Houston hasn’t looked smooth in its first two games, but those games happened to be against the top two AFC teams (Chiefs and Ravens). The desperation of being 0-2 is the only thing that scares me a bit with the Texans. Pittsburgh has quietly jumped out to 2-0 with Ben Roethlisberger looking great in his return. The Steelers have more balance and should be able to attack the Houston run defense that allows 198.0 yards per game. I’m on the Steelers.

I'm going to keep picking against the Texans until the bookmakers start correcting their lines. Houston is 0-2 and, even though the team has faced the top two teams in the AFC, the Texans never made either game competitive. They won't do it this week either, at Pittsburgh. My model says the Steelers cover more than 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.