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Expert Picks
The Titans have one last opportunity to secure a wild-card spot after suffering back-to-back tight losses to Houston and New Orleans. The Texans are expected to rest QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins, so the Titans should have more than enough firepower to pull away in this one.
I'm a little late to the party however there is still value. If Will Fuller (groin, out), Deshaun Watson (back, questionable) and DeAndre Hopkins (illness, questionable) don't play, that's worth a combined 9.5 points to the Texans. The offense will resemble the Pittsburgh offense without their stars. There is a small if: If Kansas City loses, the Texans might decide to play Watson and Hopkins, so as a small hedge, I bet a money line parlay on the Chargers to Houston paying 13-1. But I'm expecting the Chiefs to win and Watson, Hopkins and several defensive players to sit this one out. Take the Titans.
It's likely this game is going to mean nothing for the Texans, and with Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins on the injury report, there's no reason to play them in this game. The Titans, who need this win to make the playoffs, have been playing well despite back-to-back losses, outgaining their opponents in each. The Titans offense has been one of the league's best in the second half with Ryan Tannehill at the helm, and they should carve up a Texans defense that has been pretty bad when it actually is going all out to win.
With Tennessee RB Derrick Henry (hamstring) cleared to play and Houston unlikely to move out of its No. 4 seed, the Titans carry considerable appeal. Henry, who sat out last week, has been the league’s supreme RB in the season’s second half, enabling Ryan Tannehill to become the rare fill-in QB to thrive. It’s a win-and-you’re-in for the Titans. The Texans cannot climb the playoff seeding ladder if Kansas City downs the L.A. Chargers - almost a sure thing - in the early afternoon. Barring an upset in K.C., Houston coach Bill O’Brien will yank his starters.
Houston coach Bill O'Brien has said that his starters will play in this game, and maybe he's telling the truth, but how much are they going to play? Unless the Chiefs somehow lose to the Chargers, the Texans are locked into their seed. Meanwhile, the Titans are in with a win, so there isn't much question to their motivation. So, unless the Texans get stupid and think it's more important to keep a division rival out of the playoffs than it is to make sure they're rested and healthy themselves, the Titans should win and cover here.
This is a play-in game for the Titans and, in a way, a playoff-seeding contest for Houston, so expect it to be highly competitive. Tennessee will come in at full strength, as RB Derrick Henry returns. Also, the Texans could take their foot off the gas if they decide they are locked into the fourth seed. What we do know is that the Titans can't afford to let up, as they need a win to get in. They will play tough throughout.
I love the Titans here. Deshaun Watson isn't playing all that great, he's bothered by an ankle injury, and he's going to be missing Will Fuller. The Texans are 2-6 ATS in their past eight home games.
The Chiefs are going to whip the Chargers, and Texans coach Bill O'Brien knows that. That means Houston will be locked into the No. 4 seed. Deshaun Watson is dealing with an ankle injury, and Will Fuller and Kenny Stills also are banged up. Roll with the Titans, who have been very unfortunate the past two weeks. They had a chance to beat the Saints late until wideout Kalif Raymond fumbled on a shot to the head. Lay the points.
Bill O’Brien says he’s not resting his starters, and maybe he’ll stick to that plan on Sunday. But even so, this game means everything to the Titans, and as long as the Chiefs beat the Chargers, Houston will know around kickoff that it means nothing to them. The Titans sat Derrick Henry last week knowing that this was the game they needed to go all-in on for a playoff berth, and they’re talented enough to win by 4 even if the Texans go 100% for four quarters (and I’m skeptical that Houston will). Lay the points.