The Titans lost at Jacksonville in Week 3 at the height of Minshew Mania, but things are much different now. Ryan Tannehill has gone 3-1 since taking over for Tennessee, while Minshew will watch Nick Foles from the bench. The Jaguars are known for defense, but they haven't been that good at it (19th in defensive DVOA, 30th in run defense) and their only wins since Week 4 were over the Bengals and Jets. Lay the points.

The Titans offense has hit its stride since Ryan Tannehill took over under center, scoring 105 points in its last four games. But Tennessee's defense has at the same time taken a step back, allowing the exact same number of points while giving up 365-plus yards in each of those four games. That will help a Jacksonville offense that struggled in Nick Foles' first game back but should see better times ahead. Jaguars-Titans games have been lower-scoring in recent years, but they've also involved the likes of Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota and Cody Kessler. The improved QB play should get us well over the total.

This could close at 3.5 so I'm jumping on now. The Titans have a different mojo with Ryan Tannehill playing quarterback. They're off a bye. And Derrick Henry should have a big game against the Jags' leaky run defense. Lay it.

The Jaguars' offense is a mess, and they've recommitted to the running game. The Titans obviously are going to run the ball a ton Sunday after seeing what Indy did on the ground to Jacksonville. Look for the Under to improve to 9-3 in Tennessee's last 12 division games.