Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
Betting against Bill Belichick and the Patriots is a foolproof plan for losing money most of the time. There are moments, however, in which it makes sense to do so. This is one of them. Belichick defenses tend to struggle with mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson. Plus, New England's defensive philosophy is rooted in man coverage, which often provides mobile quarterbacks plenty of opportunity to run. The Ravens keep this one close, and could win outright.
The Patriots allow only 7.6 points per game which have helped six of their eight games stay Under the total and win all eight. Part of the reason is great coaching, executing each game plan defensively perfect by the players and the other part is not playing great competition. I saw the Browns running game open up big holes last week against the Patriots and I’m betting the NFL’s top running game (208 ypg) will have success and put enough points on the board to get this total Over.
The Ravens are excellent off a bye. New England's run defense isn't very good -- Nick Chubb had 131 yards last week and even the Jets ran well against the Pats. Baltimore leads the league in time of possession. With Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards, the Ravens will control the clock. Tom Brady ranks 27th in yards per attempt; he really misses Gronk.
Not many players give Patriots coach Bill Belichick problems on game day. The one type of player that does is the mobile quarterback. To say Lamar Jackson is a mobile QB is like saying old-school hip-hop is the best. Jackson's ability to make it an 11-on-11 game will give the Ravens a chance to pull off the shocker in Charm City.
Baltimore coach John Harbaugh is 9-2 straight-up coming off a bye. Of course, none of those wins were against New England. Then again, no QB is akin to the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, who will test Patriots coach Bill Belichick’s defensive smarts. The Pats’ offense remains efficient with smoke and mirrors; few teams have a less intimidating set of skill-position players outside of QB Tom Brady's unit. The defense has been sublime. This seems like the right time for the offensive shortcomings to catch up to New England.