The Dolphins will be hard-pressed to score more than 10 points. Every Bills' game has gone Under thus far, and the Dolphins' last four have gone Under. Get this total before it drops further.

The Dolphins might have had a spark with Fitzmagic late last week, but don't forget how awful the offense was when he started the first two games. Buffalo is second in points allowed per drive, and no one has topped 17 points against them. I can't see Miami being the first to do so. The Bills offense is built around run efficiency, and their best big-play receiver (John Brown) has been limited in practice with a groin injury. I don't think the Bills offense is going to rack up points, not when only one of their games has gone over 40 despite playing a ton of bad teams.

Spreads this large are incompatible with totals as tiny as 39.5 -- even with the Dolphins involved. Buffalo ranks 25th in scoring so would need to flex more offensive muscle to produce enough points for a cover. Miami’s wretched offense showed some gumption last Sunday against Washington and the confidence level should be up (from zero). The near-win could deflate the Dolphins, but here is guessing it has the opposite effect.