The Broncos look like a disaster right now. The defense I promised would be strong doesn't even have a sack yet this season. Meanwhile, the Packers have covered both their games, but this is this red alert time for a dog to win. I‘ll take the points just to be safe. Broncos cover.

I'm not projecting the Broncos to travel well at Green Bay. Look for a big day from Rodgers to Adams, as my model makes the Packers -9.5 home favorites over Flacco and the Broncos. Lay it.

This line has come down to the key number. The Packers' offense should finally break out against a Denver team that I don't think will travel well. Lay it.

I had hoped this line would tip to Packers -7 by now, but even if this is where it stays by kickoff, I like the home team to cover. The Packers sport one of the best home-field advantages in the league, and the Broncos offense has been woeful over the first two weeks. Yes, they've played tough defenses, but this Green Bay unit looks like it could be one of the best in the league as well. Though the Broncos have a good defense as well, facing Aaron Rodgers is a step up from matchups with Derek Carr and Mitchell Trubisky. Packers in a rout.

Neither of these teams has played a game this season where the total went over 40. Neither offense has scored more than 21 points in a game. Both defenses are in the top 10 in yards allowed. They'll play outdoors on grass, and one of the quarterbacks is Joe Flacco. There are a lot of reasons to think this game is going Under 43, even with Aaron Rodgers involved. Maybe Rodgers will get comfortable in the new Packers offense and start lighting it up this season, but don't expect it this week.

The mighty Green Bay offense -- not! -- has carved out a per-play average of 4.3 yards, the fourth fewest in the NFL. The Packers should not be spotting more than a touchdown. Denver, despite its formidable pass rushers, has yet to record a sack. That drought should end against quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who tends to hold onto the ball in the pocket. The Broncos might be 0-2 straight-up, but its losses are by a combined 10 points.

Vic Fangio has plenty of experience scheming against Aaron Rodgers, and while there's a new offense in Green Bay, Matt LaFleur has yet to inspire any confidence. You might note that the Packers have played two top defenses so far, but the Broncos are no slouch defensively either. On the other side of the ball, I don't know how a Joe Flacco-led offense heads into one of the toughest home fields in the league and scores consistently. Let's hop on the Under here before it dips below 42.