The Ravens are still being overvalued from their Week 1 demolition of the Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 2-0 ATS on the season and winning games by an average of 16 points. That is despite not having two key playmakers from last season in Kareem Hunt (cut) and Tyreek Hill (injured). Kansas City has not lost a step. It's going to be wet today in Kansas City, which should slow down the scoring overall but not overly effect both teams. This retooled Baltimore defense has yet to be tested. It will be today.

The weather will make an impact on this game, and I like the home team to be in a better position to deal with the conditions. The Chiefs defense is improved this season, and is much better at Arrowhead. My simulations make Mahomes and company -7.5 favorites against Lamar Jackson. Lay it.

The Chiefs' defense is improved and will look a lot better at home. Baltimore is missing two key defensive backs, and Patrick Mahomes will take advantage. Lay it.

The Chiefs have the largest home edge, worth 3.5 points, and I’ve got them five points better than the Ravens on a neutral site. So when I see the number dropping below a key number like -6 when I have the game at -8.5, it’s an automatic play. Plus, the Chiefs have covered their last nine September games. Chiefs to cover.

This total is down 2.5 points since Monday, putting it 1.5 points above what these teams reached last season. The difference is that Lamar Jackson has shown he’s a more willing and able passer than he was as a rookie, and he'll throw for a lot more than the 147 yards he got in K.C. in 2018. The Ravens defense lost some key players and hasn’t been tested yet, and the Chiefs won’t take their foot off the gas this week against a talented Baltimore offense. Take the Over.

If any team can slow down Kansas City’s freight train offense, it’s Baltimore. The Ravens rank second in the NFL in yards allowed (274.5 per game) and have been dinged for only two touchdowns, albeit against easy-touch opponents. Quarterback Lamar Jackson has unleashed only 57 passes as coach John Harbaugh leans toward the rush in play-calling. The Ravens blitzed quarterback Patrick Mahomes successfully last season and, though the game did generate 51 points, kept him relatively in check.

Two young quarterbacks take center stage in this one at Arrowhead Stadium, with Baltimore's Lamar Jackson facing off against Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes. Jackson has the Ravens clicking at 2-0, and has piled up 722 yards of total offense with seven passing touchdowns. Mahomes is at peak form again, with 821 passing yards and seven TDs. The Ravens continue to rate among the NFL's best defensively, and while the Chiefs have made strides on defense they still aren't at that level. Kansas City WR Tyreek Hill is out with a shoulder injury, and even with a resurgent Sammy Watkins, the Chiefs still can't run the ball much.

Baltimore may be the most overrated team in the league. The Ravens squeaked by Arizona and before that they beat Miami. The Chiefs are at home, their defense is better than it was a year ago, and with Patrick Mahomes they can score at will. He had four TD passes in the second quarter last week.

This total should only go up, so let's lock the Over in at 55. I don't know how the Chiefs' defense is going to stop the dual-threat ability of Lamar Jackson, and I don't know how anyone stops Patrick Mahomes. This one could get to 80 points before all is said and done.