Simulation Picks
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
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Expert Picks
Tough matchup here on a Thursday night. It should be low-scoring. It should be frustrating for the viewer. And it should ultimately see the Titans coming out on top. The Jaguars are better than advertised even with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, and this should probably be a pick 'em game, but he's going to have a tough time against Tennessee's secondary. Considering the Titans can stop the run, that means Jacksonville will have a tough time moving the ball at all. I don't like taking the Titans or relying on Marcus Mariota, but the injuries and controversy surrounding the Jags -- is Jalen Ramsey really going to go 100 percent if he's trying to be traded? -- has me leaning Tennessee.
The Titans have won and covered their last four meetings with the Jaguars, and Jacksonville comes into this week on a 3-9-2 ATS run in its last 14 games. The Jags also come in with rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew, who has looked decent in his two games. But Minshew isn't Nick Foles, and there should be more of a points adjustment because of him. I’m on the Titans.
The difference in this game will be which team stops the run most effectively. Tennessee is 6-1 straight up in its last seven games against Jacksonville, and the Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last five September games. The Jaguars give up just 92 yards per game, while the Titans allow 123 yards per game on the ground. Jaguars rookie QB Gardner Minshew is making his second career start after throwing for 213 yards and a TD last week against Houston. Look for the Titans to get Marcus Mariota started early and earn the W.
The Titans tend to thrive against teams with a weak run defense and O-line (see: Browns, Week 1) and look pedestrian against teams that are solid in those areas (see: Colts, Week 2). The Jaguars aren’t very good at either spot, and Tennessee has beaten them four straight times. It’s not ideal to pick against the home team on a short week, but Jacksonville’s best player just requested a trade, and it’ll be starting a sixth-round rookie at QB. Lay the point and a half.
The Titans have beaten Jacksonville four straight times and six out of seven. They lost a tough one last week, but there's a big coaching advantage for Tennessee. They travel well, have a good defense and running game. Jacksonville played well on defense last week but the Jags can't score.
I'm projecting 32 points for Thursday Night Football, giving us a strong play on the Under. The Under is cashing in about 70 percent of simulations. Look for the Under to cash for the eighth time in the past 10 meetings in Jacksonville.
I know the Jaguars didn't put a ton of points on the scoreboard in Week 2, but I liked what I saw from Gardner Minshew. Good ball placement, good decision-making, good rapport with his receives. The Jaguars will be looking for revenge after getting absolutely gashed by Derrick Henry in a Thursday night game last year, and at 0-2, they know how much they need this win in a wide-open AFC South. This could be Minshew's breakout game against a Titans pass defense I'm still not sure is all that good.