Not expecting a huge win for the Chiefs, but they out-talent the Jaguars at most positions, certainly enough to overcome the extreme Florida heat. Nick Foles will help Jacksonville improve as he's a massive upgrade at a key position, but this is still his first start in a meaningful game with his new team. We don't know how Leonard Fournette is going to look behind this remade offensive line, and Kansas City is a known quantity at this point. I'm not concerned about the Chiefs' running game as Patrick Mahomes' mobility opens plenty of holes.

Welcome to hell, Nick Foles. Jacksonville’s newest quarterback lines up behind a line with two tackles who have yet to play an NFL snap at the position. On the left side is Will Richardson, in his second year. On the right side is recent third-stringer Jawaan Taylor. Kansas City's defense tied for the league lead in sacks (52) last season, so the hardly nimble Foles could be scrambling all day. It was 22 games ago when the Chiefs last scored fewer than 26 points. They won’t steamroll the Jaguars’ steadfast defense, but 26 almost assures them of victory over Jacksonville and its impotent offense.

Andy Reid is 10-2 against the spread in September the last three years. A lot of money is coming in on Jacksonville, but I disagree with it. People say Patrick Mahomes is going to regress but why should he? He's really good and has great weapons. I don't think Nick Foles can translate what he did in Philly to Jacksonville. Lay the points.

Tyreek Hill has been cleared to return to team activities and should be available for Week 1 in Jacksonville. My simulations make Kansas City -5.5 road favorites against the Jaguars.