The overall season numbers favor the Saints but looking at current form, I'm taking the points with the Rams and their relentless ground game.

Have I loved the way New Orleans' offense has played over the last couple of games? Not exactly. But I do love the way its defense has stepped up. Of the four remaining quarterbacks in the playoffs, Jared Goff is the most susceptible to being neutralized, and the Saints are strong enough up front to slow down Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson, even if just a bit. Meanwhile, they have such a variety of offensive weapons that Drew Brees should be able to spread the ball around even if Michael Thomas gets double coverage -- and he will. Expect plenty of touches for Alvin Kamara in this one. The Rams win if Goff is able to consistently move the ball and the Saints' offense does not improve one iota from recent weeks. I do not expect either of those things to happen. Add in the homefield advantage, and -3 is a perfect line for New Orleans.

There were 80 points scored in the first meeting between these two this season and that number has inflated the total in this game a little. The Rams offense hasn't been the same without Cooper Kupp and the Saints have a run defense capable of limiting Todd Gurley. The Saints, meanwhile, will look to run the ball a bit more in this matchup against a bad Rams rush defense. Like so many sequels, it won't live up to the original. Take the Under.

The Saints enter this game having failed to cover in each of their last four games, and I just think they're too good a team for that trend to continue. Plus, I'm just not interested in betting against New Orleans at home in a playoff game. The Rams have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, while the Saints have one of the best and can limit Todd Gurley, forcing Jared Goff to beat them, and Goff has not been nearly as effective in the passing game since losing Cooper Kupp.

This is a very unique game as the Saints and Rams have met thrice in two seasons. This game will be about the coaches more than anything. Adjustments will be key. Two big concerns in this game will be Saints guard Andres Peat’s injured hand, and the Rams offense without Cooper Kupp. Those are the biggest differences from the matchup earlier in the season to now. This Saints team felt as though last year was a Super Bowl season, look for them to realize that dream this season.

Drew Brees just hasn't looked like his normal self throwing the ball in the second half, and it's curtailed the Saints' ability to score quick touchdowns down the field. I think they'll lean more on the run game in this matchup against a bad Rams rush defense. Jared Goff hasn't looked great in the second half either, and the Saints have the defense to slow the Rams run game and make Goff beat them. Despite being in the dome, I don't think we're going to quite get the fireworks we'd normally expect from these two teams, and the Saints defense will help keep us Under the total.

Much has been made of the Saints' offensive struggles in the second half, but don't overlook how well the defense has played. They've given up 17 points or less in seven of their last nine games, with the two exceptions being against a desperate Steelers team in Week 16 and a throwaway game in Week 17. Jared Goff hasn't played well since the calendar turned to December, posting one game with more than 220 yards in his last six and a total of six TDs during that stretch (with four coming in one game). The Saints were second in yards per attempt allowed in the regular season and can force Goff to beat them. He won't.

The case can be made that no roster brims with more talent than L.A.’s. Problem is, Jared Goff, despite his occasional flashes of excellence, remains a second-tier QB, and he badly misses injured WR Cooper Kupp. The raucous N’Awlins crowd gives the Saints more than the standard three points for home-field advantage and will disrupt the Rams’ offense at times. Home teams have swept the past 10 conference championship games straight-up. As gifted as the Rams are, with ferocious D-linemen and suddenly a two-headed RB situation with Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson, the streak is unlikely to snap at the scene of a heightened home-field edge.

The Saints have scored more than 20 points only once since Thanksgiving. Both Rams corners are healthy, and their D-line will get pressure on Brees. Plus, the Saints defense is going to miss Sheldon Rankins a lot versus these two Rams running backs. Give the edge to the Rams because of their running game.

I'm going with the team that has more momentum and is playing better right now and I've got value with the number. Lately, the Saints don't look like that Week 9 team that beat the Rams 45-35 and the Rams were -1.5 at New Orleans in that one. The Saints look sluggish of late, going 1-5 ATS in their last six. The Rams have won and covered their last three. I have them equally rated so crossing +3 is a big deal to me. I'm on the Rams taking the points.

Yes, the teams jointly piled up 80 points in the Superdome two months ago. This time will be different. Quarterback Jared Goff has tailed off, which sheds light on the Rams buying in to the ground game Saturday with newcomer C.J. Anderson and Todd Gurley splitting carries. That means fewer snaps in the game with an oft-running clock. The Saints’ raucous crowd will cause penalties and snap-count issues for L.A., which went 6-2 Under on the road this season. The same record applies to New Orleans’ latest eight games overall, with most credit going to the improved defense.