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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
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The last third of the season was tough for the Saints, but you can bet Drew Brees, Sean Payton and Co. will take advantage of two weeks of rest while the Eagles were toughing out a one-point win against the Bears on the road last week. Ted Ginn being back in the lineup provides another speedy threat, and New Orleans will simply be too much for Philadelphia to handle. Payton is on a 10-1 ATS streak off a bye, and the Saints are dominant at home. Expect a big effort from Brees and another double-digit win as the Eagles' lack of firepower finally catches up with them in the Superdome.
Set aside the widely circulated stat that New Orleans averaged 18 ppg over its last five outings. More importantly, with QB Drew Brees at home, the Saints are sailing along at a 40-ppg clip in a five-game window. The bye was a blessing for the beat-up offensive line, which should be sufficiently healed. Philly has no trouble finding points on the road, where the Over has been reached in 22 of the past 30 games. A nearly corresponding time frame has the Saints 21–9-1 on the Over. Nine postseason games have been staged at the Superdome, and the Over has never failed to carry the day.
The Eagles defense did really well against the Bears last week, but this Saints offense is much better-equipped to exploit their weakness in the secondary. Particularly at home in the dome. On the other side of the coin, Nick Foles and the Eagles should be able to move the ball through the air themselves in this contest, so while the spread is a little too large to trust the Saints, the total's a safer play.
Philadelphia returns to the Superdome a completely different team than the one that was blown out a few weeks ago. QB Nick Foles does make this offense a bit more efficient. Defensively, the inexperienced group of defensive backs is now playing well together, and are making plays. The only issue is that this is still the same Saints team that will have one addition than the previous matchup and that's WR Ted Ginn. It won't be another blowout, but the better team will take care of business.
The Saints averaged a 34-25 score at home this season which helped five of their eight games go Over the total. The Eagles went Over in five of their eight road games. I like the Eagles and Nick Foles to put some points on the board early forcing the Saints to play catch-up and making the pace faster than expected similar to their 30-23 win at the Rams. The Saints have gone Over in 11 of their last 14 playoff games. Over is the play.
It's not going to be 48-7, but I do think it will be a double-digit win for the Saints. Ted Ginn's return is going to help this offense break out at home. The rest was great for Drew Brees; the Eagles' magic finally will run out at the Superdome.
Since Thanksgiving, the Saints have averaged 20 points per game. Drew Brees has been victimized by a lot of drops -- his receivers aren't that great after Michael Thomas. The Saints' defense is really playing well and they're not going to let Philly be balanced. Go Under.
I think this is the game the clock finally strikes midnight on Nick Foles. The Saints absolutely pasted the Eagles back in Week 11, and Sean Payton is 10-1 ATS after a bye since 2009. I expect he'll have the offense on track here and take advantage of the Eagles' secondary in a way Mitch Trubisky couldn't consistently. Foles didn't play all that well in his team's win in Chicago, but he came up big in the fourth quarter when the Eagles needed it. I'm not sure the Saints give him the chance to play the hero at the end of the game here.
Although it would be intriguing to see the Eagles continue their unlikely march through the playoffs, top-seeded New Orleans is about the worst matchup they could face. Although the defense helped grind out a win in Chicago, it still allowed 303 passing yards to Mitchell Trubisky. The Eagles' secondary is ranked No. 30 in the NFL, yielding 270 yards and a 67 percent completion rate. We're unlikely to see the same 48-7 drubbing that happened on their first visit to New Orleans, but the Eagles again won't be able to keep pace in Sunday's rematch.
Do you think the Saints' 48-7 home win over the Eagles in November will be a topic this week? That was the stick-a-fork-in-the-Eagles moment. The Saints were only -7 then. The Eagles got their mojo back and they've been playing wild-card games for the last four weeks (4-0 ATS), and, yes, their quarterback is better this time around too. But now with all this data of the current Eagles, I'm getting +8? Meanwhile, the Saints are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games. The starters took Week 17 off and had last week off, as well. Rust? I'm on the Eagles' momentum.