I didn't think I was going to get to play this game, but the line movement has pushed this into a solid value on the Patriots -3.5 at home. Brady and company have had several weeks at home while the Chargers have traveled thousands of miles. My number on this game is -4.5 so I'm pretty comfortable fading the public on this one. Lay it!

There are plenty of reasons to like the Patriots historically in this spot, but this is a Chargers team that is basically a top AFC seed with a lower ranking. New England has not looked like itself all season -- including during its winning streak -- and even with two weeks of preparation to heal, this is the perfect spot for Los Angeles to finally take down Tom Brady and Co. Phillip Rivers must be salivating at this opportunity, and if you look at the Chargers compared to the Pats by position, you can argue that the visitors have the advantage in most spots here. Clearly there's an advantage with Bill Belichick at the helm, but that can be overcome with talent and game planning. Give me LA and more than a field goal in what should be a close game either way.

Tom Brady has won a lot of playoff games during his career. Still, even so, Brady and the Patriots are only 16-18 ATS in his playoff starts, and this week they're running into a team that's a bad matchup for them. San Diego's pass rush will present problems for Brady and the Pats, and the Chargers offense can cover this spread.

Defensively, this is where I believe the Chargers have an advantage. They are multiple, they have depth and they can disrupt the pocket while also being able to effectively cover on the back end. The Patriots would have matched up better against Baltimore than Los Angeles. Philip Rivers could finally break through in this one.

It's hard to buck the Chargers with their amazing road record and their fierce pass rush. But the line has come down, and the travel disparity in this one cannot be dismissed. The Patriots have been home for three straight weeks. The Chargers have logged 10,000 miles in that span. Lay the points as New England reaches its eighth straight AFC title game.

This is the Chargers' third straight road game, and they're making their second straight cross-country trip. Philip Rivers has had four subpar games in a row. Something's not right with him. I don't trust him in this spot. New England has good safeties, and their offense is still more than capable, even without Josh Gordon. They still have Julian Edelman and Sony Michel, and Gronk will get free. Lay the points.

The Patriots are tough at home, especially in the playoffs and especially in the divisional round, where they're 11-1 straight up and 7-4-1 ATS. But even though this year's team went 8-0 at home, they just don't look nearly as crisp as they have in the past, with Rob Gronkowski seemingly on his last legs, Tom Brady making more small mistakes here and there and the defense struggling against teams that can run the ball. The Pats are just 1-4 when giving up 150 rushing yards, and the Chargers should enjoy getting this defense after playing the Ravens twice and the Broncos in their last three games.

Philip Rivers has gotten the worst of it in meetings against Tom Brady going just 1-7 straight-up. However, this 2018 Chargers squad is the best Rivers has been a part of since the end of the LaDainian Tomlinson era ended. Brady and his offense don't look as sharp or dominant this season, nor does the defense (Pats still 8-0 at home). The Chargers are now 8-1 ATS on the road after Sunday's dominating win at Baltimore. The key here will be the Chargers pressure on the outside edges with Bosa and Ingram. Brady hates to be hit and he also hates the thought of it -- see his Von Miller history and both Giants Super Bowls. I'm on the Chargers with the points.

Watching L.A.’s defense devour the Ravens’ offense is reason alone to validate this pick. Then there are the trends: The Chargers have landed below the total in four of their last five away games, while New England has done the same in four consecutive home dates. And the last half-dozen encounters have resulted in five Under. Lastly, the long-range forecast calls for another form of Under: temperatures below freezing, with possible snow. Such weather should impact the Southern California-based team on offense more than on defense.