The total was efficient at 56-57 but the weather has pushed this into a solid value bet at 54.5 or 54 if you can find it. Wind is the element that impacts the total more than anything, and the wind isn't going to be much of a factor here. My number is still 57.5 so I'm the Over.

I missed this game at open but finally got the line movement I was looking for with the weather. The public perception that the weather helps the Colts more than the Chiefs is wrong. My number on this game was KC -6.5 and is currently KC -7 under these conditions. The home field advantage is 10x more important than the weather when the wind isn't blowing 15+ MPH. Lay it with the Chiefs.

This is a tough pick, but the snowfall in Kansas City coupled with a potential absence of safety Eric Berry have me leaning towards Indianapolis here. Andrew Luck is fully back to form and has an offensive line that will keep the Chiefs' pass rushers at bay and give him time to deliver the ball. Coupled with KC's lackluster run defense, Indy should be able to get yardage and points offensively. Patrick Mahomes may be slowed a bit by the snow -- limiting his escapability -- and despite his massive success this season, good defenses have been able to get to him at times. He's still a rookie starting his first playoff game. Kansas City may ultimately win this, but it should be close just as games against the Seahawks, Chargers, Ravens and Rams (1-3 straight up and 0-3-1 ATS in those, by the way) have been since mid-November.

There are a combination of factors behind this pick. One is that I have a hard time trusting Kansas City's defense to get enough stops against Andrew Luck to cover this spread. The other is that, amazing or not, it's still Patrick Mahomes' first career playoff start. Furthermore, home favorites in the Divisional Round are 17-28-1 ATS since 2006.

Luck versus Mahomes. A score-fest, right? Not so fast. Over the last 10 weeks of the season, no team gave up fewer points than Indianapolis, which was overshadowed by QB Andrew Luck’s excellence, and the Colts nearly shut out Houston last weekend. As a result, they are on a 6-2 Under run. Late in the season, QB Patrick Mahomes’ yardage tailed off as the Chiefs became more balanced. The last half-dozen KC home playoff games have gone Under all but once, and this year’s edition yielded an average of 18 points at home, sixth lowest in the NFL, by virtue of a high sack and interception rate. Freezing conditions could impair the passing games. No matter the conditions, Indy figures to rely more than usual on the run.

Strong defense versus strong offense. As great as the Colts have played recently, there is still something about their offense that gives you some cause for pause. My bet is that it's their running game that's still making folks hesitant to fully believe. With the added rest and additional game film, expect the improving Chiefs defense to have a key on what Indy wants to do offensively. Plus, it's hard to get stops consistently against Pat Mahomes and the KC offense.

Wish I'd gotten 6, but I'll still take the points with a Colts team on a 10-1 straight-up run. They've also covered seven straight versus winning teams. The Chiefs do one thing well defensively -- rush the passer. But Indy has the best O-line protection in the league. Grab the points as this one goes down to the wire.

The Colts are on a 10-1 run and I think they'll give the Chiefs all they can handle. Marlon Mack rushed for 148 yards against Houston, and K.C. can't stop the run. The Chiefs will score a lot too, even without Kareem Hunt, but I think this is a field-goal game. Grab the points.

Andy Reid used to be unbeatable after a bye week; he won his first 16 games with the Eagles when he had an extra week to prepare, going 12-4 against the spread during that stretch. But from his final year in Philadelphia to now, he's just 4-4 straight up and 3-5 ATS after a bye, though the league has scheduled him on the road after every regular-season bye with the Chiefs. The Colts' offense just rolled up 200 yards on the ground against DVOA's best rush defense and now gets to play DVOA's worst rush defense. Throw in Andrew Luck and I can't see the Colts getting blown out.

The Colts defense has played well during their current 10-1 streak, but here are the quarterbacks that have started against them: Deshaun Watson (twice), Derek Anderson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota (left with injury), Ryan Tannehill, Cody Kessler, Dak Prescott, Eli Manning, Blaine Gabbert. The only undeniably good one is Watson, who has to deal with a Swiss cheese O-line. Marlon Mack and the Colts' O-line had a field day against DVOA's No. 1 rush defense in Houston, and now they face the worst rush defense in the league. I expect both teams to score in the 30s in this one.

The past five No. 1 seeds in the AFC have gone on to the Super Bowl, but none of them had a defense as shabby as the Chiefs' No. 31-ranked squad that allowed 405 ypg and 26 ppg. Of course, the Chiefs have the No. 1 offense in scoring (35 ppg) and yardage (425 ypg). The Colts' defense ranked No. 11 (339 ypg) and was steady all season and has helped the Colts win 10 of their last 11 games (7-3-1 ATS). They're fresh off handling the Texans in front of the Houston fans, and the offense tallied 422 yards. Once again the Colts offensive line proved it might be the NFL's best by not allowing Andrew Luck to be sacked. The Colts allowed an NFL-low 18 sacks this season. Look for Luck to have all day to find open receivers, and for Indy's running game to keep thriving. The Chiefs have been overrated in their last seven games, covering just once, a 35-3 win against the Raiders in Week 17. In this matchup, getting anything above +3.5 offers value.