There is no doubt that the Bears have a great defense, but simply put, Chicago has not impressed me this season outside of the true decimation of the Rams, which was a perfect storm scenario. The Eagles are 3-0 since the move to Nick Foles with wins over those same Rams and the Texans (plus a shutout of the Redskins). Philadelphia is comfortable with Foles under center, and he’s obviously pressure tested in similar scenarios. Chicago just had a weapon (Trey Burton) ruled out and needs to make some moves through the air to cover a touchdown spread against Philadelphia. The Eagles’ secondary does make that a possibility, but in what I expect to be a low-scoring game, I’ll take the near-touchdown.

The Eagles are facing a Bears team with a great defense, but also an offense led by a QB making his first career playoff start. Mitch Trubisky has been good for the Bears this season, but he's also had a tendency to turn the ball over at inopportune times. His defense usually bails him out when he does, but between the young QB, a shaky kicker in Cody Parkey, and a defense that may be great but has a tendency to get too conservative late in games, allowing opponents to close the gap, it's hard to pass up on nearly a touchdown here with Philly.

It always gives one pause to pick a favorite spotting nearly a TD in a projected low-scoring encounter (the total is 41). However, Philly QB Nick Foles has shown a pattern of inconsistency, and we might get the bad St. Nick against Chicago’s ferocious pass rush. Nobody ranks higher than the Bears for defensive efficiency and opponent passer rating. It may come as a surprise that Bears QB Mitch Trubisky ranks high for efficiency. If he outperforms Foles, which is conceivable, Chicago wins in a walk. They are 7-1 straight-up at home and 12-4 ATS all told. In that context, 6.5 points isn’t much.

Nick Foles is nursing bruised ribs and that's not ideal heading into a road game against the NFL's best defense. The Bears have a huge homefield advantage -- they're 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 at Soldier Field. Lay it.

The injured Bears receivers are practicing and should play. They've got two really good running backs, and their defense is so superior to Philly's offense. Chicago creates a lot of takeaways; they'll put Nick Foles under a lot of pressure and pick him off. He's going to struggle playing through his rib injury. Lay the points.

The Bears defense is the best in the league, and they'll get the benefit of playing a banged-up QB after Nick Foles had to leave last week's win over Washington. But it's not like the Chicago offense is plowing through people either, as they've averaged less than 20 points during their four-game winning streak to close out the season. I think this is a low-scoring game throughout as both teams look to win with their defense.

Nick Foles and the Eagles rallied to win and cover their last three games and had the Bears help them out at Minnesota on Sunday to get the final wild-card berth. The last three wild-card teams to win the Super Bowl all won three playoff games on the road, so there's that hope for Philly. But collectively, the Bears are far superior at home compared to the Eagles on the road. Chicago allows only 285 yards per game at home and it's part of the reason it was the NFL's best cover team (12-4 ATS). The Bears get the win and cover.

Nick Foles has his Eagles back in the playoffs in a very similar situation as last season. This particular matchup against the Bears is an intriguing one because of how the Bears defense can pressure the QB and match up against what the Eagles do on the perimeter. Second year QB Mitch Trubisky gets his first taste of the playoffs and with how the Eagles play within the front seven, could find himself under duress a lot They will make him beat them throwing the football. Look for a very tight game that'll come down to a field goal.

The Eagles' defense has been pretty inconsistent this year, but they rose up when they needed to most, absolutely shutting down Washington on the road to help the team get into the playoffs. The Bears have the best defense in the league but a shaky offense that had its five best performances in terms of yardage in the first nine games of the season. They're not playing particularly well right now, and they can't have much faith in a kicker who's just 23 of 30 on field goals with three misses under 40 yards. I think the Bears are the better team and will get the win, but the value here is on the Eagles with the points in what should be a low-scoring game.