A couple hiccups as of late by Houston -- including last month against Indianapolis -- have the Texans at a nice value as a slim home favorite. This is one of the toughest decisions of the season for me as some of the numbers are pointing me in a direction other than my gut has told me for the last week. Andrew Luck has 863 yards passing in his last two games against the Texans, and T.Y. Hilton has burned the secondary as Indianapolis' top-notch offensive line has held up. Still, it has combined to rush for under 100 yards in those games. I don't like Houston's offensive front, but I love Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins, who always show up in big games. Expect Watson to run today and make a crucial drive late. Combine that with homefield advantage and the low spread, and I'll run contrarian here against the groupthink by picking the Texans, who have outperformed the Colts in six of the nine quarters (including a OT) they have played this season.

I'm a little worried about the shorter turnaround for Indy, which had to play Sunday night and then travel for the early Saturday game. But overall the Colts' resume is superior and especially when it comes to protecting their quarterback. Marlon Mack has had two huge games in his last three outings -- he'll give Indy the balance it needs.

The Texans will be looking for Andrew Luck to throw all the time, and that's why Marlon Mack will have a big game. Everybody talks about Houston's defense but Indy's defense is playing great; they're good in all areas. Houston has trouble protecting Deshaun Watson, which also will be a big factor. This is my second-best play of the weekend. Back the Colts.

QB Andrew Luck’s two most productive yardage games this season occurred against Houston. Hard to see it happening again, not with DE J.J. Watt having a banner year even by his standards. On the other side, DeShaun Watson is the league’s most sacked QB, going down a dozen times against the Colts. Indy has been Under in five of its past seven games, the same rate for Houston on recent home dates. Here are points tallied in the Texans’ four wild-card outings: 41, 32, 30, 41. Those numbers do not come close to this total.

The Colts are going to do their part in this game, as they've scored 23 or more in 12 of their last 13 games, and with the high stakes of the playoffs, I expect the Texans to get some points on the board as well. Over the last two seasons, playoff totals of 48 or more have gone Over seven times and Under just once as the NFL becomes even more of an offensive league. Expect to see something closer to these teams' first meeting in Indy, when they combined for 71 points and 944 yards.

After starting out the season 1-5, the Colts have gone on a 9-1 run, including wins in their last four. They split with the Texans this season in a pair of three-point games, the last coming in Week 14 at Houston when Andrew Luck threw for 399 yards. It's been the Colts offensive line spearheading the Colts revival. They protect the franchise; the Colts allowed the fewest sacks this season. The Texans allowed the most. The road team is 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Colts have too much momentum to bet against. Indy is the play.

The Colts are playing much better defensively right now than the Texans. When you look at the offensive side of the ball, both Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson tend to put the ball in harm's way a bit more than you'd like, but if it came down needing a 'big play' in a crucial situation, you have to trust Watson. This is something he's done since his college days. You can't say the same thing about Luck.

Indy feels like a bit of a square pick, with everyone jumping on the Andrew Luck bandwagon as the Colts have rolled up nine wins in their last 10 games, including one in Houston. I wanted to take the Texans, considering Indy has one of the worst adjusted sack rates in the league, but they did manage 12 sacks of Deshaun Watson in their two meetings. Note that home teams that close as favorites of 2.5 points or less in wild card games are just 5-11 ATS all-time and only 1-7 ATS this century. Typically, there's a good reason that these type of teams aren't getting the full three points.