Simulation Picks
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
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Expert Picks
It's rare to get the Pats with this kind of line at home, which shows the respect the Vikings are deservedly receiving. With Stefon Diggs and Xavier Rhodes both active, that makes things more difficult for New England, but the Pats are also countering with Rob Gronkowski and Rex Burkhead in the lineup. New England is so strong at home that it can always pull away late even if it's close for three quarters. I'm not going to go with a full allotment here, but I'll have something riding on the Patriots.
Stefon Diggs and Xavier Rhodes are questionable to play in this game, and even if one or both makes it into the lineup, they won't be at 100 percent. Conversely, the only player on the Patriots' final injury report on Friday was Dwayne Allen. This Patriots team is healthy and entering the money month of December, where they've lost outright just three times since 2002. The Vikings have allowed 26 points per game on the road this year, so I expect New England to do plenty of scoring. I'm not ready to trust Kirk Cousins and the Vikings in this spot though.
Opportunities to snare the Patriots as a less-than-TD favorite at home, especially late in the season, are scarce. The Brady Bunch covers about two-thirds of the time in such context. Narrowed to December and January in the regular season, it’s nearly three of every four. This year, they are unbeaten straight-up at home. The Vikes’ defense can impede the Pats to a degree, but Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins is coping with growing pains on his new team.
I don't like the way Tom Brady is getting knocked around -- they don't protect him all that well and Minnesota's defense is good. I'm also not crazy about Kirk Cousins but when he doesn't get pressure, he's tough. He's got two great wideouts and a good tight end in Kyle Rudolph. This number is too big.
Kirk Cousins is coming off only his third turnover-free game, a win over the Packers in which he also used his running ability -- finally. Just as important, the Vikings' defense is rounding into late-season form. They give up 3.7 yards per carry and won't let Sony Michel run wild. While the Patriots are 5-0 at home and deservedly favored here, this is too many points. Even if New England goes up double digits, the back door will be open for Cousins and co. Grab the points.
My trusty simulations show the Patriots defeating the Vikings by double digits more than 60 percent of the time. Minnesota's defense is considerably weaker than last year when it allowed a league-best 15.8 points per game. In 2018, that unit now yields 22.4 points per contest. New England is 7-4 ATS this season and has failed to cover only once at home -- the Chiefs by one half-point. Take the Pats.