The road team has covered seven of the last eight meetings, but the thing that matters most in this meeting is current form. Denver is on a roll covering five of their last six. Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in their last six and they'll be starting Jeff Driskel at QB. The Bengals defense allows 31.5 ppg and 147 ypg rushing. The Broncos should have a big day running the ball. Broncos cover.

The Bengals were 2.5-point favorites on the lookahead line, and there's no universe where Andy Dalton is worth 7.5 points. For that reason alone, we're getting value in this game, and I could see them having some success offensively with A.J. Green back. The Broncos are coming off back-to-back wins against top-tier AFC teams but were blown out of the water statistically in each of those matchups. They can't help but be overvalued, so I'm just going to close my eyes and roll with Jeff Driskel and the points.