The Browns may hang around for a bit, but I don't see how their decent defense contains the Texans for four quarters at home. Houston's variety of weapons and Deshaun Watson's effectiveness have proven difficult for more talented teams to handle. Cleveland is overvalued coming off consecutive wins. There might be some hangover in Houston from a short week, but it should pull away late to continue its winning streak and cover for the fifth time in the last six games.

It's not going to be as easy Sunday for Baker Mayfield and the Browns as it has been the past two games vs. Atlanta and Cincy. But I still think Cleveland can do enough to stay within this number. Houston is on a short week and it will be hard to match the emotion the Texans displayed Monday night. Grab the points with the rejuvenated Browns.

According to DVOA, the only thing Cleveland does well is pass defense, and that's helped them beat flawed teams like the Bengals and Falcons who throw the ball well but are turnstiles on defense. That's not the case with Cleveland's opponent this week, as the Texans are third in the NFL in points per drive allowed and fourth in DVOA on defense. I could see the Browns on the road struggling to put up points against an elite defense, and the Texans should do a good enough job offensively at home to get us the cover.

Suddenly, the Browns have become road warriors. Fresh off their first outright road win in three seasons, they travel again to face the NFL's hottest team. However, Houston is stepping out of a Monday nighter, which makes No. 9 in a row straight-up no sure thing. The Texans are just 2-3 ATS at home. Cleveland owns a modest two-game streak straight-up. Its previous two outcomes -- losses to Pittsburgh and Kansas City -- were respectable. Maybe QB Baker Mayfield can imagine Hue Jackson as a coach on the Texans staff.

Baker Mayfield is playing well but this defense is different. It's really good. With those three great defensive players on the Texans, I think Mayfield is going to make some mistakes. Houston has won eight straight and Deshaun Watson is playing very well. Lay the points.

Browns Interim OC Freddie Kitchens has done wonders for this Browns offense and Baker Mayfield. He's not turning the ball over and is also not taking any sacks. Both were an issue earlier in the season. However, in comes a true test this week with JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney being the two of the league's best pass rushers, along with a host of other talented play-makers that don't miss any opportunities to make plays on the ball. On the flip side, the Browns defense has to be able to find ways to contain Deshaun Watson. Bad matchup here for the Browns.